India’s solar potential could far exceed previous assessments

A recent study estimates that India’s total solar potential could reach 10,830 gigawatts (GW), far exceeding previous assessments and identifies new opportunities across both conventional and innovative applications of solar energy. A reassessment by the Delhi-based The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) has unveiled that this potential is nearly 15 times the country’s earlier estimated potential of 748 GW. The report titled, ‘Reassessment of Solar Potential in India: A Macro-level Study’, aims to offer a renewed perspective on the country’s solar energy potential.

The study identifies untapped solar avenues critical to achieving India’s 2070 net-zero goal and advancing its Paris Agreement commitments, according to a TERI press release. These are new opportunities across both conventional and innovative applications of solar energy. The TERI reassessment covers a wide range of categories, including ground-mounted solar photovoltaics (PV) on barren and unculturable land with an estimated potential of 4,909 GW, floating solar PV with 100 GW, rural and urban rooftop solar PV with a combined potential of 960 GW, agri-PV for horticulture crops, coffee, and tea plantations with 4177 GW, the press release adds.

As stated in a TERI policy brief, India’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) were updated in August 2022, setting the target of reduction of emission intensity by 45% by 2030, over the 2005 level, and achieving about 50% cumulative installed capacity from non-fossil-based energy resources by 2030, and reaching net-zero by 2070. Achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 will require a huge expansion of non-fossil energy sources, with solar energy playing the significant role. TERI’s study estimates that the electricity demand will exceed 5000 TWh by 2050. It is well recognised now that solar power will form a major share of the clean energy mix in the country. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE), Government of India in 2014, estimated India’s solar potential at 748 GW, based on considering three per cent of wastelands for calculating solar potential. However, considering the growing demand, the advent of new solar applications, and the limitation posed by the assessed potential, there is a need to revisit the assumption forming the basis of the potential estimation, the TERI policy brief adds.

The brief highlights that achieving net-zero emissions by 2070 will require a huge expansion of non-fossil energy sources, with solar energy playing the major role. TERI’s study estimates that the electricity demand will exceed 5,000 TWh by 20501. Furthermore, as another TERI discussion paper, ‘India’s Journey to Net Zero: A Conceptual Framework for Analysis’, projects that India’s electricity consumption could grow five to six times, eventually peaking at levels comparable to the present levels of consumption in the European Union (EU) – equivalent to a per capita consumption of 6687 kWh or a total consumption of approximately 9362 TWh. This highlights the critical role of solar energy in decarbonizing India’s power sector. Beyond this point, electricity consumption is expected to plateau.

The reassessment study by TERI revisits the solar potential of conventional areas like barren and unculturable lands and explores additional avenues to increase the country’s solar potential estimates. Based on literature review and macro analysis through various assumptions made by the authors, the study re-evaluates the country’s solar potential. The categories considered and their estimated solar potential, based on the norm of three acres per MW for ground mounted solar PV on barren and unculturable and floating solar PV.

The study finds that ground-mounted solar PV on barren and unculturable lands alone accounts for 4909 GW, with Rajasthan contributing the highest at 1234.6 GW, followed by Madhya Pradesh at 731.3 GW, Maharashtra at 606.7 GW, and Gujarat at 592.6 GW. Floating solar PV systems, using water surfaces of inland reservoirs, tanks, tanks, ponds, and aquaculture zones, are estimated to offer 100 GW of capacity. The TERI report comes at a critical juncture as India accelerates its transition to clean energy in line with its updated NDCs under the Paris Agreement, and its target of net-zero emissions by 2070, the press release says. It adds that by highlighting underutilized and non-traditional solar applications, this report serves as a crucial tool for policymakers, industry leaders, and civil society to support a just and scalable energy transition.