Joe Biden. File

The White House could enact proposed Environmental Protection Agency regulations as soon as March that would mandate dramatic reductions in tailpipe emissions. The administration proposal would require boosting US EV market share to 67% by 2032 from less than 8% in 2023.

General Motors, Ford and Stellantis – the European parent of US-based Ram and Jeep – have warned they cannot profitably transition their truck-heavy US fleets that quickly, according to a Reuters analysis of automakers’ sales data and a review of comments to regulators.

The United Auto Workers, which represents about 146,000 workers at the Detroit Three, has endorsed Biden for re-election. But the union has told the administration its drive for EVs puts jobs at risk.

Automakers endorsed an earlier administration target to boost EVs to 50 per cent of new vehicle sales by 2030. Groups representing auto dealers have joined in criticism of more ambitious targets, citing the slowdown in EV sales growth.

The Alliance for Automotive Innovation, which represents the Detroit Three and other established automakers, said the proposals could expose US automakers to $14 billion in fines for failing to hit the CO2 targets.

Former President Donald Trump has made bashing EVs a key campaign strategy – branding them as a job-killing "hoax” and a capitulation to China.

The EV price war launched by Tesla last year amplified Detroit's concerns.

"You will have a bloodbath” as legacy automakers struggle to absorb high EV investment and production costs, Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares told reporters in February.

US electric-vehicle market share trails far behind that of Europe and especially China, where 29.9% of vehicles sold in January were EVs or plug-in hybrids.

Non-union Tesla dominates US electric-vehicle sales. The unionised Detroit automakers trail far behind, with EVs accounting for only 4% of Ford’s total sales and 3% of GM deliveries.

Stellantis plans to launch eight battery-electric vehicles in the US by the end of 2024, including an all-electric Ram pickup and two Jeep EVs.

The problem for Detroit brands in meeting Biden’s proposed emissions curbs is their outsized reliance on their largest and least efficient vehicles: mid- and full-sized pickups and truck-based SUVs. Such vehicles account for 46 per cent of GM’s sales and 59 per cent of those at Ford, a Reuters review of their 2023 sales by model shows.

Those figures do not include the automakers’ smaller, car-based crossover SUVs. The Ram and Jeep brands exclusively sell pickups and SUVs and accounted for 77% of Stellantis' US sales last year.

As Detroit pushes back, environmental groups are countering that a climate emergency demands an even stricter mandate for all-electric fleets by 2035.

The Biden administration regulations, if enacted, would mark an abrupt and painful change for Detroit after years of regulations that have incentivised the automakers’ focus on trucks and SUVs by giving these models easier emissions targets to meet.

All told, pickup trucks, sport utility vehicles, and car-based crossovers accounted for 79% of light vehicle sales in the US market last year. In 1975, 80% of vehicles sold in the United States were sedans, according to the EPA.

Biden’s proposals could require the Detroit automakers to undertake extensive product or technological overhauls to comply.

GM had eschewed hybrids for the US market as a waste of resources. In February, however, GM Chief Executive Mary Barra said GM is now working on plug-in hybrids for the US market in response to rising sales of hybrids.

Both Ford and GM have struggled to sell their full-sized EV pickups. Ford in January cut 2024 production of the F-150 Lightning to one shift, reversing earlier plans to accelerate to three shifts daily.

GM’s new Silverado EV sold just 461 copies last year.