Global oil supply to plunge below demand this year due to war: IEA

Global oil supply will fall short of total demand ​this year as the Iran war wreaks havoc on Middle East oil production and drains inventories at an unprecedented pace, the International Energy Agency ‌said on Wednesday, upending its earlier outlook calling ‌for a surplus. The US and Israel’s war with Iran, subsequent damage to Iran and its Gulf neighbours’ oil infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have caused the largest oil supply crisis in history in the IEA’s view, sending oil prices skyrocketing.

“With Hormuz tanker traffic still restricted, cumulative supply losses from Middle East ‌Gulf producers already exceed 1 billion barrels with more than 14 million barrels per day of oil now shut in, an unprecedented supply shock,” the agency, which advises industrialised countries, said in a monthly report.

“The world is drawing oil inventories at a record pace as importing countries confront unprecedented disruptions to Middle Eastern supply,” it said. OPEC in a report on Wednesday also highlighted falling output as the Iran war constrains exports from some of its top producers in the Middle East.

The IEA forecasts imply that supply will come in 1.78 million bpd below total demand in 2026, erasing a 410,000 bpd surplus projected in last month’s report and a close to 4 million bpd surplus in its December report.

“Our latest supply and demand estimates imply that ​the market will remain severely undersupplied through the end of the third quarter of 2026, even assuming the conflict ends by early June,” the ‌Paris-based agency said, adding that the second-quarter deficit will be as stark as 6 million bpd.

The IEA’s base-case forecast is for a gradual resumption of traffic through the strait from the third quarter onwards, it said, which could see the market return to a “modest surplus” by the fourth quarter, allowing depleted stocks to begin to rebuild.

Supply losses led to a 246 million barrel drawdown in global oil inventories in March and April, the IEA said, which could increase price volatility ahead of the peak summer demand period. The 32-member IEA coordinated the largest-ever release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves in March in a bid to calm markets. It said around ​164 million barrels of ‌that total has already been released.

Overall global oil supply will fall by around 3.9 million barrels per day across 2026 due to the war, ‌the agency said, slashing its previous forecast, which had projected a 1.5 million bpd drop.

The IEA now sees demand falling by 420,000 bpd this year, compared with a previous forecast of an 80,000 bpd drop.

Consumption is also under pressure due to the war as price spikes lead to demand destruction and slower ‌economic growth, it said.

“The petrochemical and ‌aviation sectors are currently most affected, but higher prices, a weaker economic environment and demand-saving measures will increasingly impact fuel use.” OPEC also lowered its oil demand forecast for 2026 on Wednesday although, unlike the ‌IEA, it still expects demand to rise this year.

Data in the report indicates that OPEC+ - which includes OPEC plus Russia and other allies - is pumping much less than the volume needed to balance the market this year, according to a Reuters calculation.

OPEC+ produced just 33.19 million bpd in April, the report said, a further decline from March due to the ongoing Hormuz disruption. OPEC forecasts that demand for OPEC+ ​crude will average 42.7 million bpd in 2026.

The IEA said it will publish its first supply and demand forecasts for 2027 in its June report - a delay from April caused by the war - while its 2026 annual oil report will be delayed from June 17 with no new date yet set for its release.

Oil prices were little changed on Wednesday ‌even as US crude inventories fell sharply with investors focused on a fragile Middle East ceasefire and ​a high-stakes summit in Beijing between US President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.

Brent crude futures were ‌down 15 cents, or 0.1%, to $107.62 ‌a barrel at 1503 GMT. Meanwhile US West Texas Intermediate futures edged up 91 cents, or 0.9%, to $103.09.

US crude stocks fell by 4.3 million barrels last week, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.1-million-barrel draw, ‌the US Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

Gasoline stocks fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week, compared with analysts’ expectations in a Reuters poll for a 2.9-million-barrel draw. Distillate stockpiles, which include diesel and heating oil, rose by 0.2 million barrels versus expectations for a 2.7-million-barrel drop.

Brent and US crude futures extended gains briefly on the data. On Tuesday, oil prices rose more than 3% as hopes for a lasting U.S.-Iran ceasefire faded, dimming prospects for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas normally ​flows. Trump landed in Beijing on Wednesday after saying on Tuesday he did not think he would ‌need China’s help to end the war, even as prospects for a lasting peace deal weakened and Tehran tightened its grip over the strait. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite sanctions pressure from the Trump administration. Trump is scheduled to meet Xi on Thursday and Friday.

“The length of time of the market rebalancing is somewhat in the balance depending on the latest round of negotiations, but it is unlikely to be less than a few months,” said ​Rystad analyst Janiv Shah.

Agencies