South African cherries look East as US ties sour

Kopano Gumbi, Reuters

South African cherry farmer Gert Eastes has spent 12 years preparing to break into China. Now, with Beijing introducing a zero-tariff scheme for qualifying South African exports and opening its market to the country's cherries for the first time, that effort looks close to paying off. "We've been asking for this for ages," said Eastes, CEO of Ridge Cherry Farms.

South Africa is ⁠in the midst of a push to diversify its export destinations, a strategy driven both by a desire to harness new markets and the need to mitigate the fallout from its declining relationship with the world's largest economy, the United States.

Since President Donald Trump's return to the White House, relations between the US and South Africa have been on a downward spiral, with Washington criticising Pretoria's government policies, imposing tariffs and even threatening sanctions. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Monday his country must now prepare for possible exclusion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), Washington's flagship trade initiative for Africa, which grants qualifying countries broad duty-free access to the US market.

Agricultural products rank among ⁠South Africa's most important exports, and it is seeking to crack new markets including Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and the broader Middle East. But with over 1 billion consumers and rising incomes, China is the main prize. China is by far the world's largest consumer and importer of cherries, buying nearly 600,000 metric tons a year, with Chile and Argentina its two biggest suppliers.

South Africa accounts for just 0.2 per cent of global cherry volumes, leaving its growers little prospect of competing on scale. Instead, they see an opportunity in timing. "If we can get there early, we'd say September, early October, that creates the opportunity for us to get there before the Chilean cherries," said Karien Bezuidenhout, manager of alternative crops at South Africa's deciduous fruit farming association, Hortgro.

"The Chinese market is enormous. But South African cherries have got an excellent taste profile," she said. At his 125-hectare (309-acre) farm near Rustenburg, in the country's north, Eastes has been refining production to harvest in October and export to China.

He's aiming to boost his volumes from 600 tons to eventually reach 2,000 tons. "If we can send 1,000 tons in October to ⁠China, that changes our business model and ... the opportunities we have to grow the business," Eastes said.

After lapsing in 2025, AGOA was extended earlier this year. But questions remain over the initiative's long-term prospects and – following threats by some US officials and lawmakers to exclude it – South Africa's inclusion in it. Relations between Washington and Pretoria remain strained.

South Africa summoned US Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III last month – the third time it had done so since his February arrival – accusing him of "undiplomatic" conduct. Washington, meanwhile, is forging ahead with a programme granting refugee status to members of South Africa's white Afrikaner minority, an initiative Pretoria says is based on false claims they face systematic persecution.

While AGOA access is a concern, South Africa's Agriculture Minister Willie Aucamp said the push into China was not a slight against the US but rather an effort to grow the sector.

"We can't wait and be caught with our pants around our ankles should AGOA not be renewed. We've got to go ⁠and open up new markets," he said. Cherries are just a small example of the opportunities in China, according to Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.

South Africa exports about $15 billion worth of agricultural products annually, he said, while China buys about $200 billion worth in total. "We are already exporting 55 per cent of what we produce. We could see our export value expanding by at ⁠least 20 per cent over the coming years," Sihlobo said. But hurdles remain.

Before South Africa can send its first cherry shipment, China must confirm it has met all of Beijing's requirements. Aucamp said he expects that approval by the end of the year. Optimistic, Eastes is already preparing to potentially quadruple his current seasonal workforce of around 300 to meet Chinese demand. "We are ready to go. If I need to export a box today I will do that," ⁠he said.