Latino voters are the new swing voters

Almost as soon as next month’s elections are over, arguments will begin about the lessons and implications for 2028. But one conclusion is already undeniable: Latinos are America’s new swing voters, according to the Tribune News Service.

If Democrats win control of Congress in November, it will be in large part because the Latino voters President Donald Trump captured in historic numbers in 2024 have abandoned him. And if Democrats don’t act decisively on two fronts — the economy and immigration — these voters will be up for grabs again in 2028.

Latinos make up more than 20% of the US population, and a growing number are demonstrating little allegiance to either party. In the last several midterm elections, Latino voters have supported Democrats by sizable margins. That was also true of presidential elections until 2024, when Trump captured a historic 48% of their vote.

These voters were drawn to Trump primarily by his promise to ease their economic frustrations. But many Latino voters work in industries that rely on cross-border trade — construction, agriculture and manufacturing — and are squeezed by Trump’s ill-conceived tariffs and the inflated costs of groceries, gasoline and healthcare.

An NBC/Telemundo poll released Sunday found that 74% of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s management of the economy and 78% disapprove of the way he’s handled cost-of-living concerns. A CBS News/YouGov poll also released Sunday found 74% of Hispanic voters disapproved of his handling of inflation.

Just as the movement toward Trump in 2024 cut across regions, genders, age and country of origin, so does the movement away from Trump this year. But it’s a mistake to assume these voters’ allegiance to Democrats is permanent.

Polls show Latino voters willing to support individual Democrats, but they also show “a broad movement away, institutionally, from the parties,” says Mike Madrid, a political consultant who has been chronicling the shifting alignment of Latino voters for nearly two decades. He predicts that what he calls “Latino populism” will be “a defining characteristic of American democracy” going forward.

One of the most common strains of populism is economic, and in fact poll after poll shows Latino voters favoring Democrats over Republicans on the economy. But if the Democratic Party wants to deepen its appeal to Latino voters, it needs to start owning the debate over the issue they see as second only to the economy: immigration.

At least two Democrats are making the moral case for the importance of immigration to the future of the country and why Trump’s anti-immigration crackdown is a drag on the economy.

In Texas, Senate candidate James Talarico is doing something few in his party have dared to do: Make the case for “more legal pathways” for immigrants to live and work in the country. In Iowa, Senate candidate Josh Turek has said he wants a “safe and secure border” but has also called for a “pathway to earn citizenship, especially in a state where you have very little population growth.”

There are now so many incidents of workers being summarily removed from construction sites, nursing homes and farms by ICE agents they no longer generate headlines. Millions of immigrants live in legal limbo because of the administration’s indiscriminate and inhumane policies. But while Republicans have clearly gone too far, Democrats have mostly fallen short.

A recent survey by the policy and research firm Unidos of 3,000 registered Latino voters of both parties, nationally and across 32 competitive congressional districts, found that while their top priorities in November are pocketbook issues, they also want to hear about immigration. In a September survey of Latino voters in battleground states for the American Business Immigration Coalition and American Families United, 63% cited the treatment of immigrants as one of their top issues.