Flavio is the obvious choice for Brazilian cowboys

Thousands of cowboys throng Brazil's biggest rodeo show, egging on the man clinging to the bull's back with the same faith they have in presidential candidate Flavio Bolsonaro. This cohort of men in hats and boots professes absolute loyalty to the political right and is expected to vote overwhelmingly for the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro in October's elections.

Rural farmers gather every year at the Barretos Cowboy Festival, indulging in a Wild West fantasy complete with rocking rodeos and boisterous country music. Cattle rancher Luiz Mario Pereira sat in a VIP booth, wearing a plaid shirt as he looked avidly at the screen broadcasting the championship. Pereira travelled 2,000 kilometres from northeastern Sergipe state to attend the 71st edition of the festival, which drew around one million people.

President Luiz Lula Inacio da Silva "should look at agribusiness differently," he told AFP, adding that Jair Bolsonaro "had a more special way of looking at farmers." It is a common refrain among farmers that Lula botched Latin America's largest economy. They also reproach him for raising wealth taxes. Flavio Bolsonaro meanwhile received a warm welcome when he took part in the festivities in August.

Unlike his father during his 2022 election campaign, however, Bolsonaro junior declined to mount a horse and play cowboy around the arena. "He is our hope," said Pereira, who is happy to vote for Bolsonaro simply because he shares his father's name. Brazil exports and produces more agricultural goods than any other country globally. "We feed the world," Suelen Carlomagno said with pride from her sugarcane farm near Barretos in the wealthy state of Sao Paulo.

The 44-year-old landowner has a lot of bones to pick with Lula.

"There was practically no dialogue" during his four-year term, she said, adding that "taxes were increased" and high interest rates became "unviable." Agribusiness recorded growth of 11.7 per cent last year after a 3.2 per cent decline in 2024. And the sector contributes one quarter of Brazil's GDP, according to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics.

Right-wing policies resonate more with the people who make it move, while Lula's progressive vision is harder to swallow. A conservative government gives "more leeway" to farmers, said Carlos Roberto dos Santos, a 62-year-old rancher and surgeon. Santos exports most of the meat from his 1,500-strong cattle herd, using his phone to track stock market prices.

He disapproves of public spending under Lula, with public debt surging by more than 10 percentage points to almost 82 per cent of GDP since 2022. Dos Santos, whose farm sits right next to the festival, blames social programmes for the imbalance. "We on the right are very afraid" that the left will replicate what happened in Argentina, he said. He believes the neighbouring country went from looking like a "European country" to a "huge favela" before ultra-liberal President Javier Milei took power.

Banners reading "Lula get out" pop up around the massive campsite. Someone even brought a cardboard cutout of Jair Bolsonaro, with a toy gun fastened to his waist as an animal skull above bore the colours of the United States. Jair Bolsonaro, who was convicted for coup-plotting, counts US President Donald Trump as a close ally. Many pro-Bolsonaro cowboys have chosen to downplay the fact that the US leader has imposed tariffs on Brazil's agricultural products.

Trump did the same with "several countries" to counter Chinese competition, said Marcio Braga. The former farmer, 52, had to abandon his land in southern Brazil following several droughts and general economic hardship. He was forced to move to the city, a reality he says is becoming more frequent among small-time rural producers.

"Here we kill our nostalgia for the countryside," said his wife Rosemary, 49, who revels in donning her hat and belt while tucking into meaty meals. Both feel that Lula shunned agribusiness and Jair Bolsonaro favoured large landowners. But they trust in the latter's successor Flavio to "reform" the country.