An unwanted war that takes a punishing toll

Washington’s war with Tehran will end immediately after the US election in November, Donald Trump said before boarding a plane for Texas to campaign for Republican candidates. The Iranian government apparently wanted to delay an end to the war to secure a more favourable political environment in the US if the Democratic Party were to take control of one or both chambers of Congress. At present, Trump’s Republican Party has slim majorities in both.

On Iran’s strategy, Trump said, “They’re desperate to try and affect the election so that we can get a nice, weak group of people in there.” He meant Democrats, of course. To secure majority Republican membership in Congress, Trump has offered five thousand dollars to all voters, in the hope enough Republicans will cast ballots and maintain their majority even though many are disillusioned with him and his policies.

While Iran has said it must be prepared to defend itself from the US and Israel, Tehran has admitted it would prefer to reach a negotiated deal with the US. This did not happen. This leaves the situation in risky limbo, risky because Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu made it clear that he might attack Iran on his own. This amounts to blackmail. He knows very well that if he does, Iran would retaliate against US regional allies and interests.

Tehran is currently trying to achieve controlled escalation in its conflict with Washington while seeking to break the ongoing military stalemate by negotiating an end to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This is strangling Iran’s economy which depends on oil passing through Hormuz. On at least three recent occasions, Iranian forces have launched attacks on US warships in the vicinity of Hormuz while the US has retaliated by sinking Iranian warships and striking Iranian oil infrastructure.

US opposition Democrats have slammed the Republican Trump administration for prosecuting a war only Congress can officially and exclusively declare, according to the US Constitution, Article I, Section 8. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate must pass a declaration of war by a simple majority vote. Congress also controls military spending and passes Authorizations for Use of Military Force. In practice, the US has not issued a formal declaration of war since 1942 when Washington entered World War II. Nevertheless, the US has waged wars in Korea from 1950-1953, Vietnam from 1955-1975, the Gulf from 1990-1991 and the so-called “War on Terror from 2001 to 2021 following the September 11th 2001, attacks on New York and Washington. The latter encompassed major campaigns in Afghanistan from 2001-2021 and Iraq from 2003-2011 as well as operations against Islamic State (Daesh) in Somalia and Yemen.

Trump’s misbegotten war was expected to last a week but has continued for more than six months. This war is unpopular with the US public. Fifty-five per cent opposes while only about 31 per cent to 37 per cent supports the conflict. The war has cost each American taxpayer around $600 to $1,000 in additional energy costs because Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of global oil is exported, according to a Brown University study and Moody’s Analytics.

“Trump said he is ‘not in a hurry’ to end the war,” Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman Ken Martin observed. The DNC oversees party activities and vets election candidates. “[They] dragged the US into a deadly and costly war they clearly cannot find a way out of – at the expense of the American people who are struggling to make ends meet.” During the election campaign Trump and Vance “explicitly promised no new foreign wars, yet six months in[to his second term,] there is no end in sight to the conflict that has driven up prices on everything from gas to groceries,” Martin added. “While Republicans claim they cannot bring down costs or fund affordable healthcare for everyday Americans, they continue to spend billions of dollars on a war no one wanted or asked for — and voters will remember this betrayal when they head to the polls in November.” While the Republican party has been warned that it could suffer a setback in the November Congressional elections, it is not clear the Democrats would benefit as they have not shown themselves to be a credible opposition ready to implement a defined programme.

War exacts high prices on warrior states. Estimates for Iranian dead vary between 3,400, according to the UN, and 6,000, according to Israel’s military. So far, at least 18 US troops have been killed in a war that has diminished US weapons stocks and consumed $100 billion in military spending. The House of Representatives has approved of this expenditure and authorised an additional $60bn despite popular opposition to war. Those who rule the US appear to have little connection with those they rule.