Limiting temperature overshoot possible?

A new spotlight report by the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) finds that as global temperature rise gets set to cross 1.5°C, pushing climate risks and impacts to dangerous new heights, the world must strive to return to below 1.5°C as soon as possible and simultaneously reduce the vulnerability of societies, communities and economies to climate impacts. The report, ‘Limiting Overshoot: Navigating exceedance of 1.5°C and pathways towards return’, finds that the world can achieve this goal by acting now to get on an ‘overshoot, peak, and decline’ pathway, according to its Abstract.

A UNEP brief says that the report examines the implications of entering an era of 1.5°C overshoot and the choices that remain available. Overshoot is a dynamic pathway encompassing the exceedance of 1.5°C, peak warming and subsequent temperature decline. The report explores the risks and impacts associated with higher levels of warming, the mitigation pathways needed to limit peak warming and enable temperatures to decline, and how adaptation and development approaches must respond to changing conditions along an overshoot, peak and decline pathway.

The evidence consistently indicates that higher peak warming and longer durations of exceedance are associated with greater risks for people and nature. Today’s decisions are therefore critical: the lower the peak warming reached, the lower the risks faced by people, societies, economies and ecosystems; and the shorter the duration of overshoot, the lower the probability of crossing irreversible thresholds and adaptation limits. The central message is clear: mitigation and adaptation must advance together. Overshoot is not an argument for resignation, but rather for urgency to action.

As a Moneycontrol report points out, for India, the significance is considerable. It is already experiencing the effects of a warmer climate through more severe heat, erratic rainfall, water stress and damage to physical infrastructure. A prolonged period above 1.5°C could intensify those pressures and adapt an increasingly expensive part of economic planning.

An India Today analysis points out that India is particularly exposed because its population, agriculture and economy are highly dependent on climate-sensitive systems. The World Bank says more than 80% of India’s population lives in districts at risk from climate-induced disasters, including extreme heat, floods, droughts and cyclones. The 2026 study published in ‘Nature’ found that India’s average summer maximum temperature rose by about 1°C between 1981 and 2020, while heatwave frequency, duration and intensity also increased. Another 2026 study the report quotes that was published by Sciencefocus found that ‘uncompensable’ heat stress, which is heat and humidity so severe that the human body cannot adequately cool itself, is spreading across India and could increasingly affect the monsoon months, not just summer. Warming also threatens India’s water and food security.

The Moneycontrol report adds the immediate consequence for India is being felt in the monsoon. For an economy where millions of farmers remain dependent on rainfall, a warmer climate combined with increasingly erratic precipitation creates a particularly difficult equation. The current season has already highlighted that vulnerability. Rainfall has been uneven, with prolonged deficits in some agricultural regions even as other parts of the country have experienced intense downpours.

The UNEP report points out that global warming is expected to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels in the coming years. The priority is to limit how far global temperatures rise, shorten the period of higher warming and reduce the resulting risks to people and ecosystems. Higher levels of warming bring increasing risks, including more extreme weather, ecosystem loss, glacier melt and pressure on food and water security. Some impacts may be irreversible, even if global temperatures later decline. Mitigation and adaptation must advance together. Rapid cuts in greenhouse gas emissions are needed to limit peak warming, while countries also need to strengthen adaptation and resilience as climate impacts intensify.

Returning warming towards 1.5°C will require sustained net-negative CO₂ emissions, alongside continued efforts to adapt to climate impacts. Carbon dioxide removal will be needed, but its risks, limits and governance challenges must be considered. The report’s central message is that overshoot is not a reason for resignation, but for urgency. Lower peak warming and a shorter period of overshoot can reduce future risks, while decisions taken now will determine how much scope remains to reverse warming.