Strategic retreat

Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine has told Donald Trump’s advisers that the US needs to find an exit from the war with Iran because airpower alone is unlikely to achieve Trump’s stated objectives. These are to protect US forces and citizens in the region, ensure the transit of essential security assistance to Israel to defend against Hamas attacks, and boost US forces in the region to deter efforts to expand the war beyond Gaza. Since Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, raid into Israel during which 1,950 Israelis were killed and 250 captured, Washington’s immediate objective was achieved. This was to secure the release of the captives which happened within days.

Without considering the consequences, Israel and the US have waged full-scale war on Iran and its Lebanese ally Hizbullah. Trump’s wiser advisers warned that this is a grave miscalculation. In response, Iran and Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen halted US and Israeli shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a major maritime chokepoint through which are exported 20 per cent of global supplies of oil and liquefied natural gas. As customers include India, South Korea, Vietnam and other major eastern countries as well as Italy, disruptions could precipitate a world-wide economic melt-down.

Since there are no direct talks between Washington and Tehran, Iran and Oman have opened a second channel for negotiating joint management of the global primary shipping channel which had been regarded as an international waterway through which passage has been free. Iranian and Omani officials argue there will be no return to the pre-war status quo. They will not charge a toll but will impose transit controls and charge fees for services provided. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Corps has targeted unauthorised vessels seeking to cross, forcing others to wait. Iran seeks to end US sanctions and efforts to oust the regime, halt US naval restrictions, pay compensation for losses and end attacks on Iran’s allies in the region and threats against the country before full commercial traffic through Hormuz will be allowed to resume. Tehran also insists that the US must cease its demands for Iran to shut down its nuclear programme and export enriched uranium although US-Israeli bombs in March and June have “devastated” Iran’s main nuclear research sites and buried deep underground 440 kilos of enriched uranium.

Instead of using his influence with partner Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu to drop his plan to wage war on Iran, Trump allowed the US to be dragged into a conflict the US is bound to lose. Israel has already stood aside and left Trump two choices: submit to Iran’s demands or to escalate the conflict by committing ground troops to fight in Iran.

Netanyahu is determined to remain in office and is using warfare to ensure he does. He faces a legislative election by the end of October. Once he is no longer head of government, he faces prosecution for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in three separate corruption cases. On the international scene, a warrant for his arrest has been issued by the International Criminal Court for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during conflict in Gaza.

Reuters has reported that since this war is approved by only 35 per cent of US citizens, Trump has been unwilling to deploy ground troops in Iran. Fifty per cent of recent poll respondents said they thought US military action in Iran would destabilise the Middle East over the next year, while only 17 per cent said the war would enhance stability in the region. Congress and the US public could put pressure on Trump to consider Iran’s conditions if he wants to lower consumer prices for energy for Americans. High prices pose a risk for Trump’s Republicans ahead of November’s mid-term elections for all seats in the House of Representatives and one-third of Senate members.

Trump began his second term in January 2025 vowing to avoid “stupid wars,” a pledge that had reassured voters following 20 years of warfare initiated by the Sept. 11, 2001, al-Qaeda attacks on New York and Washington.

Since there are no direct talks between the US and Iran, a temporary agreement between Iran and Oman would reopen the strait with ships entering the strait through a route close to Iran and exiting through a route close to Oman. Ships would navigate the strait without paying fees or tolls during this period. This agreement is meant to restart a 60-day period for the two countries to negotiate over Iran’s nuclear programme. This could be difficult or even impossible because it took three years for the US and Iran to reach the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting US and international sanctions. As this was achieved between Iran and the five powers which are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council during the Obama administration, Trump had foolishly pulled the US out of the deal. He is personally to blame for the current crisis.

Photo: TNS