Climate, land-use change to worsen landslide risk

The Kalladi landslide in Wayanad on July 7, 2026, in the state of Kerala, India, brought back the nightmares of the 2024 Mundakkai-Chooralmala catastrophe, which claimed 298 lives. The Kalladi landslide was a disaster waiting to happen, according to experts, as reported by a Down to Earth (DTE) analysis, where eight workers were killed in this landslide and the subsequent tunnel collapse at the site of a twin tunnel project.

Now a study highlighted by a Mongabay-India (MI) report warns that climate change and land-use changes could significantly increase landslide susceptibility and risk across the Indian state of Karnataka’s Western Ghats by 2050. The new modelling study published in ‘Scientific Reports’ states that the intensity and frequency of fatal landslides in the Western Ghats are adversely influenced by human-induced land-use modifications and climate change. Understanding these factors are vital for effective disaster risk reduction strategy for coming days.

The Western Ghats is a mountain range located along the western coastline of India. This region is well known for its diverse ecological diversity and complex terrain. The study evaluates future landslide susceptibility and risk by incorporating projected changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and rainfall patterns under different climate scenarios. The research covered around 45,000 square kilometres across seven districts of Karnataka, including Uttara Kannada, Kodagu, Chikkamagaluru and Shivamogga, a region that has recorded more than 1200 rainfall-triggered landslides.

Unlike conventional assessments that assume landslide-causing factors remain constant over time, the researchers incorporated projected changes in rainfall and land use under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. Using machine learning, they combined these projections to identify future landslide hotspots and assess risks to people and infrastructure, making this one of the first future-oriented landslide assessments for the region.

The MI report points out that the authors note that the fact that the intensity and frequency of fatal landslides are exacerbated by human-induced land use changes and climate change, making it therefore essential to understand how these factors may evolve in the coming decades. They emphasise that susceptibility maps they developed identify areas most likely to experience landslides, while risk maps combine susceptibility with exposure to highlight locations where landslides could result in socioeconomic losses.

Such assessments could inform infrastructure development, land use planning and disaster risk reduction. The findings project a significant increase in rainfall intensity and urban development by 2050, leading to higher landslide susceptibility and risk across the study area. The greatest increases are expected along major transport corridors and densely populated parts of Uttara Kannada, Kodagu and Chikkamagaluru districts. According to the authors, the results demonstrate the combined influence of changing rainfall patterns and land use on future landslide hazards and provide valuable inputs for climate-resilient land use planning and disaster risk reduction strategies in the Western Ghats.

The Introduction to the study states that vulnerability and exposure to the hazards are often exacerbated by anthropogenic activities like rapid urbanization, deforestation, and subsequent LULC changes. Such activities greatly affect the influence of dynamic causative factors in landslide occurrences. Activities such as deforestation, road construction, and urbanization alter the natural slope morphology and weaken the reinforcing effects of vegetation roots. These alterations disrupt hydrological processes by affecting surface runoff and infiltration, which in turn makes slopes more sensitive to rainfall.

Furthermore, climate change is likely to affect landslide occurrence by altering rainfall patterns. Mapping landslide susceptibility and risk is essential for protecting communities now and in the future. The study concludes by saying that the projected escalation in landslide susceptibility and risk underscores the need to integrate future-oriented land-use and infrastructure planning including highway expansion and widening, and early warning prioritization, especially in the districts of Uttara Kannada, Chikkamagaluru, and Kodagu.

It adds that the findings of this study clearly demonstrate that landslide susceptibility and risk are set to intensify due to the combined effect of changing rainfall regimes and anthropogenic LULC dynamics. The results underscore the essential implications for regional infrastructure development and disaster risk reduction, as proactive interventions are required to safeguard vulnerable communities and transportation corridors. It will also be crucial to ensure that regional development follows the sustainable path to keep the future landslide risk escalation in check.