Le Pen has one last chance to win power in France

Marine Le Pen is set to run in next year’s French presidential election after challenging an embezzlement conviction that had blocked her fourth attempt at office. The leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, 57, was cleared to run for office on Tuesday as the Paris appeals court upheld her conviction but shortened an electoral ban. And despite having to wear a ankle bracelet into the next ten months of campaigning, Le Pen said there was no longer any scenario in which she would not run. Le Pen has a strong lead in early opinion polls, though analysts caution against ruling out her opponents so early and expect more from opponents on both the Left and the Right.

And as her budding lieutenant Jordan Bardella is pushed aside for her to run, Le Pen must also manage her own party and its image if she hopes to become France’s next president. If the elections were to happen tomorrow, Le Pen would likely top her rivals with 36 per cent of the vote in the first round, according to an Ifop survey for LCI and Le Figaro this week.

Centrist Édouard Philippe placed around 19 per cent and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the Left took 15. But the elections to succeed Emmanuel Macron — who cannot run again after two consecutive terms — are not scheduled until 18 April. A second round will follow in May if no candidate secures a majority. Is the outcome sealed? Gregoire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes at Chatham House, said the next few months will make clear “which trends sustain and which ones are smashed out”.

He told The Independent the strong and early lead for RN could end up its “greatest weakness”, dooming them to underperform later on, as France’s recent electoral history has shown. “Those who enter the conclave as pope often leave a cardinal,” he suggested, assessing Mélenchon is likely underpolled and Philippe unlikely to sustain the trend. Dr David Lees, reader in French Studies at the University of Warwick, believed it was Philippe, from the centre-right, who could muddle Le Pen’s shot at election. “What remains uncertain is who will oppose her on the centre-right: a figure with a strong leadership track record such as Édouard Philippe will prove a difficult obstacle to overcome,” he said.

Dr Emile Chabal, a specialist on contemporary French politics at the University of Edinburgh, added: “I also don’t think MLP has fundamentally overcome the structural constraints to her candidacy. “She still lacks vote transfers and suffers from a credibility deficit. And this will be the case regardless of who she is up against (except perhaps in the unlikely event that she is standing against Jean-Luc Mélenchon in the second round).” Could a conviction help Le Pen? Le Pen had said ahead of Tuesday’s verdict that she would not campaign for the presidency while wearing an ankle tag as she would need total freedom of movement.

“I can’t rely on a judge to allow me to hold a campaign rally or go to a market,” she told LCI. But the visual aide for an outsider running against ‘the establishment,’ despite the evident burden, could play to her favour, said Roos. “You need theatrics, I think she understands. She has the political experience. She’s also seen Trump and there’s a bit of that ... The more proceedings (Trump) had on his back, the strong he got in the polls because it made him look like he was going against the system or the system going after him.”

The “legal shadow” may not matter to some voters, he said. And Le Pen is the better candidate to mop up votes from Mélenchon, appealing to the “Yellow Vest, former communist strongholds in the north”.

But her criminal conviction may elsewhere work against her, turning off the bourgeoisie who could have voted for Bardella but will not vote for Le Pen. Dr Pierre Purseigle, reader in Modern European History at the University of Warwick, agreed. “A significant part of her electorate won’t care a jot, and the verdict may not threaten her chances to make it to the run-off of the 2027 presidential elections,” he said.

“It does however expose the hypocrisy and the delinquency of a candidate and a party which long railed against politicians’ corruption. This might not help her win over the 15-20% of voters she needs to finally move into the Elysée Palace.” Le Pen still depends on the eventual ruling of France’s supreme court, the Cour de Cassation, which could still obstruct her path to office. In that case, Bardella could still step up, but facing significant logistical challenges, explained Purseigle.

What challenges does she face from within?Headlines in recent weeks have focused on a growing divergence between the policy positions of Le Pen, who rebuilt the party from her father’s fringe far-right National Front, and Bardella, 30, who succeeded her in 2022 as she on leading the party’s group in parliament. A key issue is pension reforms, a challenge for any government that has resulted in months of strikes and protests in recent years.