Power shift

Iran set July 4 as the date for beginning the six-day funeral for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who was assassinated by Washington on Feb. 28 to coincide with the 250th anniversary of US independence. As the US celebrated its freedom from British colonial rule, Tehran’s global purpose was to call attention to brutal US interventions in the affairs of countries which do not adhere to Washington’s line and wishes.

On the domestic front, Tehran sought to demonstrate to the country’s divided and alienated citizens that the regime was still firmly in charge and loyal to anti-US policies of the 1979 revolution that ousted the shah, a US ally. While Khamenei was succeeded by his son Mojtaba, he did not appear. This elicited concern about his health as he was wounded in the US bombing, and speculation over who is leading the nation.

However, since he is fully backed by the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), such speculation is hollow while negotiations with the US could become more difficult. Under the IRGC‘s hardline commander Ahmad Vahidi, Iran is likely to be less open to compromise in negotiations with the US than was pragmatist Khamenei. Consequently, Khamenei’s assassination must be considered an “own goal” for the boastful, unthinking Donald Trump and his administration. As millions of Iranians turned out for the protracted funeral observances, many are likely to be offended when he boasted, “One Shot and We Can Take Them All Out.” He also posted on social media, “The heavy and pinpoint bombing, however, will continue, uninterrupted throughout the week or as long as necessary to achieve our objective of PEACE THROUGHOUT THE MIDDLE EAST AND, INDEED, THE WORLD!” This is typical of Trump’s serial exaggerations. However, he paused bombing until after Khamenei was buried in Mashhad.

Khamenei’s funeral also coincided with mediated discussions between Iran and the US over the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s supplies of Gulf oil and liquefied natural gas is exported. The US has attacked Iran repeatedly, disrupting these negotiations. Tehran has responded by closing Hormuz. Protracted closure could risk global economic meltdown, particularly if Iran orders its Houthi allies in Yemen to close Bab al-Mandeb, a strait that sits between Yemen, Djibouti and Eritrea and connects the Gulf of Aden to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal. There would be a major world crisis if both waterways were closed at the same time.

This delicate situation shows that world leaders should carefully consider when, where, and how to intervene in the affairs of others. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu convinced Trump to launch the war on Iran on February 28th. They believed that their joint campaign would last four or five days, weaken Iran’s military, topple its regime and force Tehran to surrender to Israeli and US dictates. Their objectives were an end to Iran’s nuclear programme, elimination of its ballistic missiles, and abandonment of its regional allies Lebanon’s Hizbollah, Iraq’s Shia Popular Mobilisation Forces, and Yemen’s Houthis.

The US-Israeli offence failed. Iran resisted and the war lasted 108 days before a cease-fire was concluded. Trump wanted to pull out of a war unpopular with nearly 70 per cent of US citizens just months ahead of US Congressional elections, but scandal-ridden Netanyahu wanted to continue the war as he faces a Knesset election in late October or earlier. He was ignored by Trump. The deal, brokered by Pakistan, was formalised by a memorandum of understanding (MOU). It called for an end to the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon, reopening Hormuz to toll-free shipping and lifting the US naval blockade of Iran, suspension of hostilities on multiple fronts, including Lebanon where Hizbollah was battling Israeli forces. The MOU mandated 60 days of negotiations to permanently settle the issues of Iran’s nuclear programme, stockpile of enriched uranium, international sanctions, and release of frozen assets. For the Iranian regime, these issues are existential as its economy is in crisis and the value of its currency has fallen dramatically. Tehran is also set to benefit in stages from investments of $300 billion once implementation of a final agreement proceeds. Security forces clamped down hard on politico-economic protests that erupted across the country early this year.

This war demonstrated that international disputes must ultimately be resolved by diplomatic rather than military means. Even the mighty US, the global hyperpower, cannot count on defeating a far weaker antagonist. This war dealt a personal blow to Trump who chose to wage this conflict and has claimed it has achieved “regime change.” However, the “regime change” he accomplished was a transition to hardliners in the Iranian military command who have consolidated their grip on power and are dictating policy. Moderate civilians have been sidelined, and their influence has been diminished. These figures include President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who had previously conducted talks with the US. As the country’s political leaders, they rather than the military could face the daunting post-war challenge of rebuilding Iran’s wrecked economy and improving living conditions for its people.

Photo: TNS