Iran war – America, Israel yet to realise their goals

The G7 summit convening today in France is expected to be dominated by Donald Trump’s dithering over his Iran war. He has once again demonstrated his predilection for abrupt policy changes. One moment he wants to escalate, the next to negotiate. Five hours after threatening to strike Iran “very hard” last Friday night, Trump backed off after urgent telephone calls from Emirati President Mohamed Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Qatari Emir Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, and Pakistani defence chief Asim Munir. Trump is now eager to escape from the war on Iran he launched with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on February 28th. Trump has informed Netanyahu about abandoning the war without asking for his input. Sidelined, Netanyahu has no choice but to follow suit.

The Gulf and Pakistani leaders pressed Trump to desist as negotiations on an agreement were close to reaching a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). This involves a 60-day ceasefire in the US-Israeli war on Iran and Lebanon while negotiations on ending the war are held, an end to Iranian funding of allied groups, and immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to global shipping. The strait would remain under Iranian management but there would be no tolls to be paid to Iran or Oman. The US blockade of Iranian ships trapped in the Gulf would be lifted, and an agreement would be concluded to release $12-24 billion of $100-150 billion in Iranian assets frozen in foreign banks.

The latter is the most politically difficult item for Trump who castigated ex-President Barack Obama who — under the 2015 agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanction — unfroze approximately $50 billion of Iran’s own oil revenues and financial assets tied up by international sanctions. In 2018, Trump withdrew the US from the deal, reimposed, increased sanctions, and threated any individual, bank, or country breaching sanctions. Therefore, it is ironic that Trump could be obliged to reach a deal worse than Obama’s agreement. Furthermore, Iran’s nuclear programme had advanced from “primitive” to developed until it was obliterated by US and Israeli bombs a year ago and in March of this year. The facilities could take years to reconstitute. Beleaguered and impoverished Iran is in no position to invest in a new nuclear programme.

Under phase two of the MOU, Iran would recommit to never acquiring nuclear weapons (a commitment Iran had already made) and to resolve the fate of its 440kg of highly enriched uranium buried under the rubble of the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Centre. Small quantities are also believed to remain at the destroyed Natanz and Fordow sites. The US has proposed sending experts to find and remove the materiel but with ongoing tensions and clashes between the US and Iran, this is impossible. Trump has, reportedly, agreed that once recovered the stock of enriched uranium could be down-blended under the auspices of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). This would involve acceptance of Irani’s demand for the process to take place in the country rather than abroad.

Over the long term, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates could consider seriously a proposal to establish a regional facility including Iran for enriching uranium to 3.67 per cent purity for power plants. This could enable oil-exporting countries to increase crude sales, boosting revenues, while using nuclear power plants to provide domestic electricity.

A US diplomat told Axios website the MOU “goes into details on all the nuclear issues” and “satisfies all US requirements.” This may be the fruit of the off-and-on talks under the Biden and Trump administrations. The deal from which Trump withdrew took three years of negotiation between Iranian and US diplomats backed up by technical experts. Trump has relied on envoys-for-all-crises, son-in-law Jared Kushner and golfing partner Steve Witkoff, rather than technocrats.

Iran does not trust Trump or the US which even under ex-President Barack Obama did not deliver all the financial benefits from the first nuclear deal Tehran expected. Trump is not trusted by Tehran because he is jittery, inconstant, and ignorant of the issues. He is in a hurry to conclude a deal with Iran. Tehran prefers to sign a workable agreement with guarantees which bind the US and Trump to deliver as Iran is wary of his character and lack of respect for commitments.

Meanwhile, his critics claim, Trump “Always Chickens Out” (TACO) because he repeatedly issues threats on the domestic and foreign levels, delays implementation or reneges, and switches to negotiations to calm stock markets and avoid popular castigation.

TACO was first applied when he had to back down after proposing high US tariffs on nearly all imported goods. This would have raised prices to US consumers, alienated trading partners, and disrupted the flow of largely tariff free inter-national commerce. In 2025 and 2026, the term TACO was revived in connection with Trump’s threat to annex Greenland and ungracious backdown after being confronted by Denmark — with which Greenland is associated and the European Union to which Denmark and connected territories belong.

The war on Iran mounted by Netanyahu and Trump has failed to achieve their objectives. Attacks have not achieved expected regime change in Iran or destroyed Iran’s arsenal and ability to manufacture ballistic missiles and drones, which are today’s weapons of choice. Iran has not surrendered but has fought back and taken retaliatory action by blocking the Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of global shipping passes. Iran has also threatened to halt shipping through Bab al-Mandab which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Suez Canal, thereby targeting Saudi oil exports and reducing the amount of fuel available to global consumers.