To check low approval, Trump needs to end war

The United States has made a major shift in its policy of rejecting direct talks with groups Washington brands “terrorist.” This shift was publicly marked by President Donald Trump when he said he had spoken to Hizbollah about the conflict in southern Lebanon. He said there is progress toward a ceasefire. “They didn’t reject me.

They called us, and they said, ‘How about stopping.’ And I think you’re going to see things happen over there.” He has also proposed meeting Iran’s supreme leader Mujtaba Khamenei who has not been seen in public since he was wounded during the US-Israeli attack on Tehran on February 28th which launched the US-Israel war and killed his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and senior figures. Trump said on Friday he believes Iran has not so far agreed to a deal because “they’re proud” and “it takes a little while.”

In mid-April, the US team led by Aryeh Lightstone met Iran ally Hamas top negotiator Khalil al-Hayya in Cairo in the first high-profile direct talks with Iran’s Palestinian ally after negotiations on a Gaza ceasefire had stalled. In March there had also been direct talks over the release of US-Israeli citizens held by Hamas.

The US had previously depended on talks mediated by Qatar and Egypt involving envoys-for-all-foreign-talks Steven Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner who do not have the expertise or political clout to succeed in these specific talks. The shift demonstrates a certain amount of pragmatism in the Trump administration. It remains to be seen if it will pay off.

To counter his low domestic approval rating, Trump seeks an early deal with Tehran to reopen the Iran-controlled Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of oil and gas are exported to global markets. As petrol prices have risen in the US, he has predicted a deal within a week, but Iran is not in a hurry and insists on firm international guarantees of any agreement. Tehran does not trust Trump who in 2018 withdrew from the successful 2015 agreement to lift sanctions in Iran exchange for limits on its nuclear programme.

Negotiated over 18 months and endorsed by the UN Security Council, that deal was concluded when Iran’s nuclear facilities were “primitive,” in the view of UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Raphael Grossi. Iran was enriching uranium to 3.67 per cent purity for power plants rather than for nuclear weapons which require 60-90 per cent uranium purity as well as the technical ability to convert it into bombs.

Thanks to Trump, the nuclear deal was cancelled, Iran retaliated by enriching uranium to the 60 per cent level, its facilities were attacked by the US and Israel last June, and the IAEA has been banned from entering Iran. Subsequently, Trump’s envoys have been negotiating on-and-off with Iran on a deal which is expected to mirror the decade-old agreement.

Tehran’s current demands are an end to the US-Israel war on Iran, a halt to Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon and to Israel’s occupation of the south, global guarantees that Iran will not be attacked again, compensation for war damage, release of $24 billion in foreign assets, and an end to sanctions preventing Iran from trading normally. Tehran has also insisted that talks on its nuclear programme should be postponed until these demands have been implemented. Iran has backed up its demands with threats to block Bab al-Mandab, the Red Sea gateway, which would impact Saudi oil exports through the open maritime route. The United Nations trade organisation has said the Hormuz blockade on its own could cost consumers $20 billion a year.

The Trump administration has refused to concede Iran’s demands and toughened its stance by conditioning sanctions relief on two US demands: dismantlement of Iran’s nuclear programme and an end to Iran’s ties to regional allies. Both have been partially realised. US-Israeli bombs have obliterated Iran’s nuclear facilities and weakened Iran’s main partner Lebanon’s Hizbollah while pro-Iran Iraqi Shia militias and Yemen’s Houthis have spoken out against the US and Israel but not entered the fray.

Meanwhile at home, the US House of Representatives has adopted a resolution barring Trump from ordering further attacks on Iran with the aim of boosting pressure on his administration to wind down the widely unpopular war. This was the first time such a measure has cleared either the House or the Senate since the start of the conflict more than three months ago.

The Senate put forward a similar motion last month in a procedural vote on a war the legislature does not authorise. Congress intends to continue efforts to compel Trump to halt the war. Several Republicans have joined opposition Democrats in this task. Legislators have been encouraged by the mid-May opinion poll by Pew research that found 64 per cent of registered voters think Trump was wrong to go to war with Iran while 30 per cent believe he was right.

The 1973 War Powers Resolution — the law Democrats cited to compel the vote — requires presidents to withdraw within 60 days US forces from any conflict not authorised by Congress. While this deadline was on May 1st, Trump claimed hostilities have been “terminated” since the April 8rh ceasefire took effect although strikes have continued since then and the US imposes a naval blockade of Iran, which is an action regarded in international law as an act of war.

The ceasefire has been extended indefinitely. As texts of proposals drawn up by both sides have been submitted by mediator Pakistan, the two sides have continued bomb and drone strikes, perpetuating conflict rather than promoting peace talks.