Russian interests in Europe are under pressure

Andrew Osborn, Reuters

President Vladimir Putin has read long-term ally Armenia the riot act: persist in wanting to join the European Union and you can kiss goodbye to cheap Russian oil and gas. The Russian leader issued the warning before a parliamentary election in Armenia on Sunday, which polls suggest the party of Western-leaning Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will win. It is not an empty ⁠threat. Armenia, a landlocked country of 3 million with centuries-old ties to Russia, is highly dependent on Moscow, which has imposed temporary bans on important Armenian exports before the vote. But Putin's words also reflect an uncomfortable truth for Moscow.

Waging war in Ukraine with no end in sight after more than four years of fighting, Russia is mounting an intensifying and increasingly complex rearguard action around the world to try to retain its geopolitical clout. While Moscow focuses resources on the war in Ukraine, the European Union and the United States have been courting and squeezing traditional Russian allies and interests, both in what Moscow sees as its own backyard and also further afield. From Havana and Caracas, ⁠from Belgrade to the steppes of Central Asia, and even in west Africa, where Moscow's forces are helping fight Russian influence is under pressure.

Armenia, a longstanding recipient of Russian largesse and home to a Russian military base, signed a partnership agreement with the US last month and Pashinyan won fulsome endorsement from President Donald Trump. Armenia, once part of the Soviet Union, also passed a law last year setting out a legal basis for it to join the EU. "Of course we are deeply concerned about the Armenian authorities' policy of rapprochement with the Euro-Atlantic community whose core policy is directed against Moscow," Maria Zakharova, Russia's Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, told reporters.

"The Anglo-Saxons are openly boasting about 'detaching' Armenia, as they say, from the bear hug of 'authoritarian Russia'". Russian war bloggers and analysts say Russia is facing a concerted and largely Western attempt – as in other regions across the world — to squeeze it out of the wider South Caucasus region, of which Armenia is part.

"In such conditions, the question of adapting Russian strategy (to embrace soft power and economic levers) becomes key," said Russian analytical Telegram channel "The Secret Chancery", which has over 400,000 followers. One source close to the Russian government ⁠said Moscow could see that countries such as Armenia were "all waiting to see how the war (in Ukraine) ends" and some were already building new ties while Moscow was largely distracted elsewhere. For Moscow, Armenia's hosting a meeting of European leaders including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month was the last straw.

Since then, Russia has temporarily banned the import of many Armenian goods, warned it might cut off cheap oil, gas and rough diamond exports, suggested Armenia could be expelled from the Eurasian Economic Union, a Russian-led trade bloc, and recalled its envoy to Armenia for consultations.

Dmitry Medvedev, the outspoken deputy chairman of Russia's powerful Security Council, also hinted that Armenia's prime minister could, if not careful, suffer the fate of Bolshevik revolutionary Leon Trotsky whom Josef Stalin had killed with an ice pick. Meanwhile, Trump, who Moscow hoped would have strong-armed Ukraine into suing for peace by now, has instead targeted three traditional Russia-friendly countries – Iran, Venezuela and Cuba.

His actions have lifted oil prices, offering some respite to the war-battered Russian economy, but they ⁠have also exposed Moscow's inability to meaningfully help old friends. Havana has received only one shipment of Russian oil so far. In Europe, Moscow complains it faces an increasingly hostile continent that is re-arming while holding out the prospect of EU membership to countries where Russia once held sway. Putin ally Viktor Orban lost power in Hungary in April, leading to the unlocking of billions of euros in EU funding for Budapest. ⁠Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, another Russian ally, is under pressure, with moves under way to abolish visa-free entry for Russians as Belgrade seeks EU membership.

Russia is also feeling the heat in Transdniestria, a Russian-garrisoned separatist enclave which is internationally recognised as part of Moldova, whose current political leadership wants to join the EU. Russia is also worried about what it casts as encroaching Western influence in Central Asia, while in the South Caucasus Putin is trying ⁠to move past a rocky period in relations with oil-producing Azerbaijan, which has strengthened ties with the West in recent years.