Trump has pushed US into a needless $30b war

Lebanon’s government has once again declared May 25th a public holiday to commemorate the date in 2000 when the Israeli army unilaterally withdrew from the south after 18 years of occupation. The day after Israel’s pullout, my Iraqi friend Nuha al-Radi and I toured the south from Naqoura to Marjayoun.

Our driver, Zein, was from the south and knew the border area well. We set off at six in the morning from Beirut and drove along the coastal road through Sidon and Tyre en route to Naqoura where we had coffee with the then UN spokesman and peacemaker Timor Goksel, known by his friends as the “terrible Turk.” We toured the border villages where children handed out sweets, local Christian priests praised Iran-backed Hizbollah for driving Israel out, and villagers seemed shocked to be rid of the Israelis after so many years of occupation.

Thousands remained in their homes which were still standing despite so many years of warfare. We paused at Kafr Kila where Lebanese civilians used to throw stones toward the Israeli settlement of Metula across the border. At Ibl al-Saqi we met villagers whose relatives lived at Dearborn near Detroit in Michigan, the state where I grew up. I told them I would be there within the week to visit my sister and interviewed these relatives during my stay. They asked me about their family members and the situation in the south.

We turned inland and I filed a story to The Irish Times from an internet cafe in Nabatiyeh before returning to Beirut. By that time the highway was a creeping traffic jam as hundreds of thousands of Lebanese flocked to the south. Hizbollah was seen as a hero in a largely united Lebanon and across the Arab world. The armed non-state movement had achieved the nearly impossible task of using irregular military tactics to drive Israel from occupied territory.

Even after Israel withdrew from the south, the border has remained conflicted and volatile. Full-scale war erupted in July 2006 after Hizbollah fighters killed three Israeli soldiers and abducted two in retaliation for an Israeli strike on Hizbollah. The border remained quieter until 2010. The latest flareup began on October 8th, 2023, when Hizbollah opened a second front after Palestinian Hamas based in Gaza carried out an attack against southern Israel, killing 1,200 and abducting 251. Today the Israeli army occupies 53 per cent plus of Gaza.

On February 28th, this year, the US and Israel mounted their war on Iran, prompting Hizbullah to retaliate by firing rockets and drones into northern Israel. As it is the regional super-power supported by the global hyperpower, the US, Israel has no problem fighting on two fronts.

Israel has reoccupied south Lebanon to the Litani River, about six per cent of Lebanese territory, has driven 1.2 million villagers and townspeople from their homes and has been systematically blowing up and bulldozing dwellings and infrastructure in more than 50 border villages. Israel’s invasion and occupation policies have become far more punitive than in earlier years. Established in response to Israel’s invasion in 1982 to drive Palestinian fighters from Lebanon, Hizbollah was founded with Iran’s Islamic regime’s backing for two purposes. As a movement to serve and defend Lebanon’s largely under-privileged Shia population and to challenge Israel in solidarity with Palestinians who were expelled from their country or occupied by Israel in 1948 or 1967.

After Iran’s Islamic movement overthrew the shah in 1979 Tehran denounced his intelligence and political ties with Israel. This major shift in policy was demonstrated when Palestine Liberation Organisation chief Yasser Arafat became the first foreign leader invited to visit Tehran. Both Hamas and Hizbollah have benefitted from Iranian funding, military training, and regional support. This is true also to a certain extent of Yemeni Houthis who have lobbed missiles and drones at Israel and threatened shipping in the Red Sea while Iran has blockaded the strategic Strait of Hormuz through which 20 per cent of regional oil exports flow.

US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu may have considered Hizbollah’s involvement in their war on Iran but apparently forgot about the Houthis. Ttump and Netanyahu also predicted the war would last only four or five days but two and a half months later Trump wants to exit the conflict. Netanyahu – who waited 40 years for an opportunity to attack Iran – would have no choice but to follow Trump.

So far, the oft-violated ceasefire is holding but there has been no progress on ending the war. Trump failed to convince China to mediate during his weekend visit because he has made demands unacceptable to Iran. These include ending its support for regional allies, eliminating most of its ballistic missiles, lifting its blockade of Hormuz, shutting down its nuclear programme and exporting to a third country its 440 kg highly enriched uranium.

Tehran has flatly rejected his demands despite military, political, and economic pressures which have ruined the Iranian economy and alienated and beggared the population. Iran simply does not trust Washington, especially Trump, who withdrew from the 2015 deal negotiated by the Obama administration which limited Iran’s nuclear programme in exchange for lifting sanctions. Europe, the Arab world, and South Asia are unable to to break the deadlock.

Trump’s approval ratings have registered below 40 per cent overall, with 61 per cent of citizens considering the war on Iran is a mistake. Discontent among Democrats and Independents has produced levels recorded during the Vietnam and Iraq wars. However, 79 per cent of Republicans have approved the Iran war.

Trump has propelled the US into a largely unpopular $30 billion war it cannot win. He cannot simply declare victory and walk away and is likely to be held accountable by Democrats, some Republicans, senior officials, and majority public opinion.