Radev victory could redefine Bulgaria's foreign policy

In a grassy valley in rural southern Bulgaria, farmer Nikolay Vasiliev is desperate for change. For years, he said, corrupt local officials have blocked plans to expand his cattle-raising business. Revolving governments in the capital Sofia have failed to uproot graft or support the area's cratered economy. Now, however, he says there's hope. Taped to a post outside his farm is an election campaign poster bearing the unsmiling portrait of ⁠Rumen Radev, a pro-Russian former fighter pilot who stepped down as president in January so he could run in the April 19 parliamentary vote. Radev leads in the polls, buoyed by the support of older, rural voters who see him as a saviour to end years of turmoil and break what he calls an "oligarchy" of corrupt veteran politicians.

"I see a leader who can make this drastic change and provide security for people," Vasiliev said in an interview at his farm in the Haskovo province of Bulgaria. "The time has come for us to fundamentally solve the problems in the country." Bulgaria, a Black Sea nation of some 6.5 million on the European Union's southeastern frontier, votes on Sunday for the eighth time in five years amid a political crisis in which weak coalitions have failed to survive and trust in democratic elections has waned. This election ⁠feels different, several voters told Reuters.

Radev, who was elected president, a largely ceremonial role, in 2016, has emerged largely unscathed from the crisis and has promised to end corruption and provide stability. Experts say graft exists in Bulgaria in everything from public procurement deals to local elections. Bulgaria is ranked 84th in Transparency International's 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index, on a par with Hungary as the lowest-scoring country in the EU. Radev promised on Wednesday to put an end to "the local feudal lords and strongmen who are suffocating entire regions of Bulgaria."

A Radev victory could redefine Bulgaria's foreign policy, which has been dictated by parties loyal to Brussels. Bulgaria joined the euro zone in January and last month signed a security agreement with Ukraine, moves that Radev opposes. "The coalition-makers introduced the euro in Bulgaria without asking you. And now, when you pay your bills, always remember which politicians promised you that you would be in the 'club of the rich'," Radev said on Wednesday, responding to public frustration at rising bills. After Hungary's pro-Kremlin Prime Minister Viktor Orban was voted out of office, Radev is positioning himself as the one remaining EU leader willing to improve relations with Moscow even as Russia's war in Ukraine rages on.

"We are the only member state of the European Union that is both Slavic and Eastern Orthodox," he said in an interview with Bulgarian journalist Martin Karbovski. "We can be a very important ⁠link in this whole mechanism...to restore relations with Russia." In December, the government resigned amid mass protests against corruption and a budget that proposed higher taxes. A surge in demand for reform followed. Up stepped Radev. His Progressive Bulgaria (PB) party has around 30% of the vote, polls show, about 10 percentage points ahead of the country's largest party, GERB, but far short of an outright majority.

PB has received over 650,000 euros in private campaign donations, 67% of total contributions, data from Bulgaria's National Audit Office show.

Still, Radev may need coalition partners, which could temper his pro-Russian stance. One candidate is the pro-European We Continue the Change — Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) coalition, which has around 12% and agrees that reform is needed. Radev has ruled out an alliance with GERB, run by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, or with the Movement for Rights and Freedoms party whose leader Delyan Peevski is under US and UK sanctions for corruption.

"All indications point towards...coalition-building," said Tihomir Bezlov, a senior fellow at the Centre for the Study of Democracy in Sofia, adding it was unclear how long any coalition would survive. Much will depend on voter turnout, expected to swell beyond 50%. In an attempt to restore trust, the caretaker government has clamped down on vote buying and ⁠sought help from the EU to counter online misinformation, including from what it called Russian sources. Radev said this was a ruse to rig the vote.

"No one from outside can come and tell us who and what to vote for. That is decided here, by us Bulgarians," he said. Russia has denied interfering in foreign elections. Bulgaria has developed rapidly since communism fell in 1989 and it joined the European Union in 2007. Life expectancy has shot up, unemployment is ⁠the lowest in the EU, and the economy has greater safeguards since entering the euro zone. The cobbled streets of central Sofia are dotted with busy cafes and bars and people spend the spring evenings gathered in the city's many well-kept parks. Its ski resorts attract winter tourists from across Europe.

But in the villages of Haskovo, communities have been gutted by years of underinvestment and the departure of the young. Roads need resurfacing, sagging farm roofs retiling. Farmer Vasiliev dismisses talk that Radev is pro-Russian. He just wants someone decent.

Reuters