Winter forest fires indicate shifting climate patterns

Rising incidents of winter forest fires in Kashmir are emerging as signs of shifting climate patterns across the Himalayan region, a Mongabay-India (MI) report highlights. Warmer winters, erratic Western Disturbances, and declining snow cover are altering the region’s seasonal moisture cycle, according to experts, says the report. This winter saw record warmth and the driest February in nearly a decade, leaving forests vulnerable to fires even before the usual spring season. The MI report points out that fires are now being reported in Kashmir in December and January, months that were once largely considered fire-free. Forest fires in Kashmir are typically associated with the warmer months when dry vegetation and rising temperatures fuel their spread. Winter, by contrast, has kept the forest damp with snow. However, there seems to be a shift in this pattern. In recent months, forest fire incidents have been reported across several parts of Kashmir, from northern districts to central and southern forest belts. Satellite-based fire alerts and official records also suggest the problem is growing.

Official forest department data, the MI report says, show that 366 forest fire incidents were recorded across Kashmir between April 2025 and February 2026, affecting nearly 972 hectares of forest area. During the winter months between December 2025 and February 2026, 48 forest fire incidents were reported across Kashmir, damaging nearly 100 hectares of forest area. This indicates that fires are now appearing outside their traditional seasonal window.

The Indian Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change has identified Jammu and Kashmir as one of the major forest fire hotspots in the country, with more than 43,800 hectares of land affected by fires between November 2023 and June 2024. While 188 incidents were recorded in 2022–2023, the number increased to 326 in 2023–2024 and 451 in 2024–2025.

The unusual timing of these fires, researchers say, may reflect broader climatic shifts in the region. According to the researchers who study climate variability in the Kashmir Himalaya, winters in the region are becoming warmer and drier, as per the MI report. Higher winter temperatures, the researchers say, further dry out vegetation and forest litter, making landscapes more vulnerable to fires even by late winter.

The MI report quotes a recent climate study analysing long-term trends in Jammu and Kashmir found a measurable decline in snow water storage across several high-altitude districts, indicating weakening winter snow reserves. Researchers say these changes are altering the region’s winter moisture cycle and could have cascading effects on mountain ecosystems. Across the western Himalayas, winter forest fires are becoming more frequent, pointing to broader shifts in climate patterns across the region. Certain studies show that the area highly susceptible to forest fires could shift or expand significantly in the coming decades under future climate scenarios.

A NASA report on “Wildfires and Climate Change” says that earth’s warming climate is amplifying wildland fire activity, particularly in northern and temperate forests. NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites detect active wildfires twice each day. Scientists studied this data over a 21-year span and found that extreme wildfires have become more frequent, more intense, and larger. Although some variations in the weather are natural, human-caused climate change has been found to be the main cause for increasing fire weather in, for instance, the American West.

As the planet warms, hotter weather, earlier melting of winter snow, warmer nighttime temperatures, and decreasing summer rainfall are all contributing to increased fire activity. Wildfires also can be a major source of carbon dioxide emissions. Researchers found that carbon emissions from forest fires increased by 60% globally between 2001 and 2023. Fire emissions from boreal forests in Eurasia and North America nearly tripled during that same period, driven by a warmer, drier climate.

Wildfire smoke can travel thousands of miles and put millions of people at risk. Tiny particles in smoke irritate the eyes and throat and can contribute to health problems such as reduced lung function, asthma, and cardiovascular disease. Wildfires are a natural process supercharged by humans, the NASA report adds. A warming climate is increasing some types of fire activity, leading to larger and more destructive fires, more intensive firefighting efforts, and widespread smoke.