Mediation moves

Turkey, Pakistan, and Egypt have joined Qatar, India, and several other countries offering to mediate and end the war the US and Israel are waging on Iran in order to ease regional tensions. All three members of the trio have good relations with Washington and can use ties to Iran to promote a ceasefire and a halt to hostilities.

Turkey is a NATO ally of the US and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has enjoyed warm personal ties with US President Donald Trump. Dating to the Nixon presidency, Pakistan’s ties with the Trump administration are good. Therefore, both Ankara and Islamabad could be in a position to promote a deal. A deal is the triumph the egocentric US businessman Trump wants.

Israel and Turkey formally established diplomatic relations in March 1949, making Turkey the world’s first Muslim-majority country to take this step.

Turkey and Iran have established extensive economic ties and have common concerns over Kurdish separatism but compete for regional influence, notably in Syria. Despite supporting opposing sides in regional disputes, the two countries have stable, pragmatic relations.

As a key non-NATO ally, Pakistan collaborates with the US on counterterrorism, security, and regional stability although formal US strategic cooperation with India remains an issue with Pakistan. Islamabad also refuses to recognise Israel until a Palestinian state is established. While US-Pakistani trade in goods topped $8.7 billion in 2025, the US also serves as a key source of investment and remittances.

Pakistan’s relations with Iran are founded on cultural and religious ties, established when Iran became the first country to recognize Pakistan when it emerged after the partition of India in 1947. Ties have, however, suffered strain due to domestic sectarian tensions, border security issues involving Baluch insurgents and Baluchistan, and other external influences.

A staunch supporter of the Palestinian cause, Pakistan has no formal diplomatic relations with Israel. While Pakistani public hostility towards Israel is high, the two governments have cooperated covertly on security and intelligence, employing intermediaries, including Turkey, for managing indirect communications.

Egypt has enjoyed warm relations with the US since Anwar Sadat became president after the death of pan-Arab nationalist President Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1970. Sadat made peace with Israel in 1979, rendering Egypt a close US ally and a recipient of major US funding.

Although Iran adopted an anti-Israel stance after its 1979 revolution, Egypt and Iran have agreed to re-establish full diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after over four decades of estrangement due to Egypt’s peace treaty with Israel, the first in the Arab world.

Turkey, Pakistan and Egypt could boost their separate and combined regional influence if they were to succeed in mediating a ceasefire and/or ultimately putting an end to the US-Israeli war on Iran. However, this cannot happen until President Donald Trump has decided the US has achieved its war aims and announces a halt to hostilities.

Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has dreaded this moment. He wants to continue this one-sided campaign for as long as possible as Israelis go to the polls before the end of October to choose a new legislature. Netanyahu might try to postpone the election because of the war or, if he is unable to achieve delay, he hopes that his prosecution of the war will secure his Likud bloc’s return to power.

Meanwhile, Iran-backed Yemeni Houthi fighters have belatedly entered the war by launching missiles and drones at Israeli military sites – all of which were intercepted. A Houthi spokesman said attacks will continue until “the aggression on all resistance fronts stops.” This could backfire as Netanyahu could use this expansion to extend the conflict, maintaining a modicum of Israeli unity at a time when Israelis have been bitterly divided over his machinations. Despite criticism of Netanyahu on other issues, Israeli public opinion has united across political lines. According to a recent poll by the Israel Democracy Institute (IDI), 82 per cent of the population supports the current offensive and 57 per cent of Jewish respondents agreed that the war should continue until both Israeli military objectives and the political goal of regime change in Iran are achieved.

However, the Trump administration could disappoint Israeli hawks as Washington has claimed success on both goals. Iran’s navy has been crippled, its ballistic missile and drone arsenal has been depleted, and its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei and his closest collaborators have been killed. While his son Mojtaba has been wounded and has not appeared in public, the hardline Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps has assumed control and is unlikely to do a deal with Israel.

Due to the war, Netanyahu’s approval rating – which had plummeted due to personal corruption allegations and failure to prevent Hamas’ 2023 attack on southern Israel – has rebounded. The latest opinion survey reported that 74 per cent of respondents believe Netanyahu is managing the war effectively. Analysts attribute the pro-war sentiment to the widespread Israeli belief that the conflict with Iran is a matter of national survival. This is, of course, the propaganda line whenever Israel is challenged although Israel is armed to the teeth and has been regional military hegemon for decades.

Photo: TNS