Peter Magyar ends 16 years of Viktor Orban’s rule in Hungary

When Peter Magyar was a child, he taped a photo of Viktor Orban, then an anti-Communist firebrand, on his bedroom wall, thrilled by Hungary's first democratic elections in 1990. Decades later, he hopes to finally end Orban's 16-year rule as prime minister. Only nine years old when communism collapsed, Magyar said he had decorated his walls with photos of leading political figures in his ⁠Budapest family home, reported Reuters. Orban, then a young lawyer, had become a hero of Hungary's pro-democracy movement when he publicly demanded in 1989 that Soviet troops leave the country.

"There was a surge of energy around the regime change that swept me up as a child," Magyar told the Fokuszcsoport podcast last year. Now most opinion polls show Magyar's centre-right, pro-European Union Tisza party beating Orban's nationalist Fidesz party in Hungary's April 12 parliamentary election. Magyar, whose family name literally means "Hungarian", burst into the limelight two years ago after his ex-wife, Orban's former justice minister Judit Varga, resigned from all political roles after abuse case pardon that caused public uproar.

Magyar quickly distanced himself from the governing party and accused it of corruption ⁠and spreading propaganda, saying he had become disillusioned with Fidesz, Reuters found. Just four months after emerging from near-total obscurity with an interview at YouTube channel Partizan, Magyar's new party won 30% in the June 2024 European elections, finishing second to Fidesz and crushing the rest of the opposition.

Next month's election has significant implications not only for Hungary but for Europe and its populist far right. Orban has sought to create what he calls an "illiberal democracy" since 2010, curbing media freedoms and NGO activities, and weakening the independence of the judiciary.

He has forged good relations with Russian President Vladimir Putin and also with US President Donald Trump but has clashed repeatedly with the EU, which suspended billions of euros in funding due to concerns over Hungary's democratic standards. By contrast, Magyar has pledged to rebuild Hungary's Western orientation and end its dependence on Russian energy by 2035 while striving for "pragmatic relations" with Moscow. He has also promised to unlock the frozen EU funds, which would help revive Hungary's stagnant economy.

But Magyar is treading carefully, keen not to scare away more conservative voters.

Unlike Orban, he does not reject in principle Ukraine's right to join the EU one day but Tisza's programme does ⁠not support fast-track entry for Kyiv. Like Fidesz, Tisza opposes EU quotas for taking in migrants and it would also keep in place a border fence built under Orban to keep out illegal migrants. But analysts say tensions between Budapest and the EU — further aggravated by Orban's veto of a 90 billion euro aid package for Kyiv — could ease under Tisza.

"Orban has lost faith in the current form and direction of European integration, and is pursuing a policy of vetoes and obstruction," said Botond Feledy, a geopolitical analyst at Red Snow Consulting.

"Tisza has no objection in principle to integration and would pitch its battles at a practical level."

Magyar has drawn from Orban's playbook in this election, waging a grassroots campaign that has taken him into Fidesz's rural heartlands.

His rallies always feature lots of national flags, in an Orban-style appeal to Hungarian voters' patriotism. His consistent and clear messages, and skilful use of social media have all contributed to his rapid rise, said Gabor Toka, senior research fellow at the Vera and Donald Blinken ⁠Open Society Archives. "Many people are also reassured by the story of someone who has irrevocably come into conflict with the system, and has no way back," he said, referring to Magyar's break with Orban.