Danish PM bids for third term in general election

Denmark votes on Tuesday in a tight general election, with Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen seeking a third term after a campaign focused on domestic issues and set against tensions with the US over Greenland. Frederiksen, 48, has benefited from her image as an experienced leader, but her party's support has slipped sharply. The Social Democrats still lead in the polls, though they are expected to shed about six points compared with the 2022 election.

Eleven other parties are vying for the 179 seats in the Folketing, Denmark's parliament, each running separately and not as part of a coalition or alliance. Pollsters and analysts traditionally group them into two blocs: red for the left wing and blue for the right wing. But the Moderates, founded by Foreign Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, sit outside both and could play kingmaker in coalition talks. "There's a tie in many opinion polls where the Moderates... are the pivotal party, so they get to decide," University of Copenhagen political scientist Karina Kosiara-Pedersen told AFP. "In some opinion polls, the red bloc -- the prime minister's bloc -- has got the majority, so it's quite likely that the prime minister will be Social Democratic... but it is definitely not decided," she said.

The four overseas seats held by Denmark's two autonomous territories — two for Greenland and two for the Faroe Islands — could also tip the balance. Given the far-right Danish People's Party's (DF) negative stance on Greenland, "even a moderately right-wing Greenlandic MP would find it very hard to support a Danish government backed by DF," explained Ole Waever, professor of international relations at the University of Copenhagen. This "could be the case for all right-wing coalitions", he added.

The three-week campaign has centred on the quality of Denmark's drinking water — amid high nitrate levels from agriculture — as well as the retirement age and a proposed wealth tax. Frederiksen's party wants to tax personal assets above 25 million kroner ($3.86 million) to help fund the welfare state, particularly education reform.

The proposal has riled right-wing parties.

"That's the right way to go in order to have a socially responsible way of financing expenses," said Damoun Ashournia, chief economist at the Danish Trade Union Confederation (FH). "We need to invest more in our welfare state to be able to deliver the same level of service to the population," he said.

Just before Frederiksen called the election in late February, the outgoing three-party coalition — the Social Democrats, Moderates and liberal Venstre party — succeeded in passing a "food cheque" proposal to help Danes struggling with high living costs.

"Right now I don't feel I'm struggling that much but that's mostly because I have two jobs," said Anders Hemrich, a 21-year-old voter. "Really, it's gotten a little expensive," he said, adding: "You can definitely see it in the prices, they go up, they don't go down." For the country's 4.3 million voters, security concerns sparked by US President Donald Trump's threats to take control of Greenland remain a quiet but persistent issue.

"We see some rallying around the flag," said Kosiara-Pedersen. "The issue with Greenland, (its) independence, the US and all that, has not been discussed in the election campaign as such, but indirectly I would argue that it affects how we look at the leadership," she said. That dynamic benefits Frederiksen and Lokke Rasmussen, who is also a former two-time prime minister, Kosiara-Pedersen said, as both have been on the frontlines standing up to Trump. Around 23 per cent of Danes consider defence and security policy a top priority, according to an opinion poll by the Voxmeter institute. Refugee policy, which surfaced through proposals to limit numbers and encourage returns, is decisive for just 8.8 per cent of voters.