War impact

While opposing and refusing to join the US-Israeli war on Iran, European governments have condemned Iran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf states. Due to Russia’s war on Ukraine, Europe cannot afford to side with the US and Israel even though Iran is seen by Europeans as a destabilising force in this region. Swiss Defense Minister Martin Pfister criticised the US and Israel for airstrikes against Iran, saying their actions, along with those of Tehran, violated international law, “Sonntag Zeitung” newspaper reported on Sunday. Britain, France and Germany have prepared defensive positions, and Britain has permitted the US military to undertake defensive operations from the UK Akrotiri base in Cyprus – whatever that means in terms of generating action. On March 1, Iranian drones were fired at Akrotiri, damaging a hanger, and on the 4th, Cyprus airspace was closed briefly after Iranian drones were sighted in Lebanese airspace flying toward the island. They were intercepted by Greek warplanes.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has tried to justify US military action, “The only way to stop the threat [posed by Iran] is to destroy [its] missiles at source, in their storage depots or the launchers which are used to fire missiles. The United States has requested permission to use British bases for that specific and limited defensive purpose. We have taken the decision to accept this request to prevent Iran from firing missiles across the region. That is in accordance with international law. We are not joining these strikes, but we will continue with our defensive actions in the region.” Starmer did not initially authorise the US to use a military base on Diego Garcia, an island in the Indian Ocean, but changed his mind. Perhaps, this is impractical as it far from the theatre of war.

Unlike the US which has isolated and sanctioned Iran, British governments have tried to maintain contacts with the fundamentalists who toppled the US-backed shah in 1979. Shunning Iran has meant the US does not know and understand the Iranian regime which ousted the shah, a US ally, in 1979. Demanding the regime and associated regional militias will “unconditionally surrender” displays President Donald Trump’s wilful ignorance. Economic sanctions are touted by Iranian clerics to explain the hardships of the populace after hundreds of thousands protested the situation and the regime in January. The US missed opportunities to strengthen Iranian reformists like ex-President Hassan Rouhani by offering sanctions relief. If Trump had proposed this after killing supreme leader Ali Khamenei and waging war, Rouhani rather than Khamenei’s hardline Moqtada might have been appointed.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said before meeting with Trump: “We share the interest of the United States and Israel in seeing an end to this regime’s terror and its dangerous nuclear and ballistic armament.” Merz is uninformed or seeking to mislead. While Iran has scores of by missiles of different ranges, it has no nuclear arms and no prospects of rebuilding its nuclear sites which were “obliterated” by Trump. Germany will not send military support to Cyprus, arguing that its defence responsibilities are focused on Poland, Romania and Lithuania in Europe’s eastern region and argued that other European partners have offered protection to Cyprus.

Greece acted by dispatching four of its most sophisticated F-16 Viper fighter planes and two frigates to defend allied Cyprus from drone attacks. France has sent anti-missile and anti-drone systems to Cyprus while Britain deployed a warship to defend its military base rather than Cyprus.

Spain has adopted both a principled and practical stance. Its government has consistently called for respect for international law in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s wars on Gaza, Iran and Lebanon which have not been sanctioned by the UN Security Council. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez declared, “Today more than ever, it is essential to remember that one can be against a hateful regime, as is the case with the Iranian regime, as is the whole of Spanish society, and at the same time be against an unjustified, dangerous military intervention outside of international law. That one must be against a war initiated without the authorisation of the United States Congress or the United Nations Security Council and, as I have said before, one that violates international law,” Sanchez said.

This assessment has been adopted by Ireland, Austria, and Malta. The Spanish frigate, the Cristobal Colon, named after Christopher Columbus, was dispatched to Cyprus. The ship carries a “high-precision anti-missile defence system,” including SM-2 missiles, which can intercept targets 150 kilometres away. Italy and The Netherlands have also said the will deploy frigates to Cypriot waters. Irish opposition politicians have pressed the government to state that the attack on Iran by the US and Israel amounts to a breach of international law. The Irish public has urged resistance to Trump’s war in Iran, but such moves could prompt his condemnation and revenge.

Disruptions caused by the war are being felt far more in Europe than in the US. With the prolonged closure of Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of Gulf oil exports are shipped, has raised the price of oil in India, Sri Lanka, China, and Italy. Transport costs of exporting goods by air from Asia to Europe has risen 45 per cent, more than twice the increase for exports to the US. As they are “heavily dependent” on [regional] oil exports, the war is impacting the economies of Europe and Asia harder and faster than the conflict is striking the United States. Maurice Obstfeld, former chief economist for the International Monetary Fund, observed. “Being closer geographically to the hostilities also makes Europe and Asia more vulnerable to shock waves from the war.” The US has not, however, escaped unscathed. Petrol prices now average $3.41 a gallon, compared to $2.98 a week ago. Farmers face higher bills for essential crop nutrients. Supply chain disruptions are certain if the Iran conflict continues as long or longer than the Trump administration anticipates. So far, Washington has relied on miscalculations to wage this war.

Photo: TNS