Rapid warming a cause of concern

A report that has been published in the State of India’s Environment (SOE) 2026 warns that India is warming fast and questions whether this will it lead to a climate apocalypse. The annual SOE report — the flagship publication of the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and Down To Earth — was released last week.

The report adds that the Indian landmass was warmer on average by nearly 0.9°C during the previous decade (2015 to 2024) compared to the early 20th century (1901 to 1930). Warming has been uneven, with parts of north India warming as fast as 0.2°C per decade in the past three decades. While warming over the Indian region is muted compared to the present global warming level of about 1.3°C, temperature extremes in India have been on the rise. Most parts of India, except for the Indo-Gangetic plains, have witnessed an increase in “warm days” — defined as days with maximum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures during the 1995-2014 periods, by up to 5 to 10 days per decade. This is particularly prominent over northeast, Thar-Rajasthan and peninsular India. Concurrently, the frequency of “warm nights” – defined as days with minimum temperature exceeding the 90th percentile of daily minimum temperatures during the 1995-2014 periods — is also on the rise especially over parts of Rajasthan and Gujarat.

Consequently, the hottest day of the year in recent years is 1.5-2°C warmer compared to the 1950s over large regions of Western India and the northeast region, the report adds. This means that regions that were experiencing maximum temperatures between higher 30s to lower 40s°C are now experiencing maximum temperatures exceeding 40°C during summertime. This has been accompanied by increased intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves. The northwest region is experiencing a significant increase in warm days as well as warm nights rendering this region particularly vulnerable to heat stress, especially for outdoor workers. There have been significant changes in monsoon rainfall patterns in India, albeit with wide differences across the country. Large parts of northwest India have experienced an increase in rainfall by 60-120 mm every decade since the 1950s along with an increase in extreme precipitation events, while the Indo-Gangetic region and the northeast exhibit a sharp decrease in rainfall.

The report points out that Central India is experiencing an increase in extreme precipitation events (defined as daily precipitation exceeding 150 mm), with prominent increases in coastal Gujarat. There is also an increase in the intensity and frequency of high precipitation events during the northeast monsoon, which mainly affects the peninsular region of the country. Looking to the future, the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is expected to increase by 6-8% by 2050 compared to the recent past (1995-2014) under the moderate emissions scenario. However, Earth System Models still struggle with simulating the intensities of monsoon teleconnections resulting in a large spread in monsoon projections across the models.

As a DTE news release states, the 2026 SOE draws attention to another breaching: that of ‘planetary boundaries’. There are nine planetary boundaries identified by researchers: climate change, biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater change, modification of biogeochemical flows, introduction of novel entities, ocean acidification, atmospheric aerosol loading and stratospheric ozone depletion. Of these nine, humans have “blown past the safe zone” in six (as per 2024 data). The six breached boundaries are climate change, biosphere integrity, land system change, freshwater change, modification of biogeochemical flows and introduction of novel entities. A seventh boundary has now joined the list: that of ocean acidification.

The SOE report quotes the latest Planetary Health Check study, which says that ocean acidification, driven by fossil fuel combustion, has increased: surface ocean acidity has gone up by 30-40% since the advent of the industrial era. Rising acidity threatens corals, molluscs and plankton that build calcium carbonate shells or skeletons. In terms of biosphere integrity, extinction rate of species ranges above 100 extinctions per million species years – way above the safe threshold of 10. While the pace of deforestation has slowed, global forest cover has fallen to 59%, well below the 75% safe minimum. Freshwater reserves are in a dire state. Plastics, inadequately tested chemicals and synthetic materials remain a growing threat.