Attack on Iran a diversionary tactic by US, Israel

By joining Israel to mount an unprovoked military offensive against Iran on Saturday, US President Donald Trump violated the key international law which bans war except in self-defence. Trump tried to justify this campaign by claiming that Iran's regime threatens the United States, 10,640 kilometres distant. He also compounded that offence by targeting and slaying Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, the ultimate source of political power. This breaches the longstanding tradition of not killing a head of state or government during warfare. But Trump has no use for international law and traditions.

War should have been expected after Trump marshalled his “beautiful armada” in the Arabian Sea and reinforced US troop presence in the region. Once he had made this massive deployment, he had to use it unlike the mythical king of France who, preparing to engage hostile forces, marched his troops up a hill and down again.

This is the largest deployment in the region since the 2003 Iraq invasion ordered by George W. Bush who has kept a low profile ever since the disastrous consequences of his regime change war unfolded. Trump has shown he has clearly ignored or forgotten the lesson delivered by the 1991 Iraq war after his father George W.H. Bush urged Iraqi Shias and Kurds to oust the regime which turned on and crushed them.

On his Iran intervention, Trump stated in curious English, "It’s time for all the people of Iran — Persians, Kurds, Azeris, Balochis and Kazakhs — to shed from themselves the burden of tyranny and bring forth a free and peace-seeking Iran." Israel and the US have pre-empted and finished off today's resumption of Oman-mediated negotiations over Tehran's nuclear programme at a time progress was taking place. Ahead of the war, Trump had relied on the diplomacy with the aim of averting military action which could be complicated and have unpredictable results.

Tehran has rejected Washington's demands although Iran's nuclear programme was, according to Trump, "obliterated" when chief sites at Fordow, Isfahan, and Nantaz, were put out of action in June when they were bombed by Israel and the US. Mediated negotiations between US and Iranian technical experts were set to resume today. Talks last week achieved progress but major differences have not been resolved. The US has demanded "zero" uranium enrichment, Iran export its stockpiles, and decommission advanced centrifuges used for enrichment.

Last week's talks appear to have achieved a tentative breakthrough, according to Omani Foreign Minister Badr Bin Hamad Al-Busaidi. He said a deal between Iran and the US could be resolved “amicably and comprehensively” within a few months. Iran had agreed to discuss diluting uranium enriched to 60 per cent purity (a short step from 90 per cent needed for weapons) to 3.67 per cent to fuel power plants, zero stockpiling, and regular and random inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

"A peace deal is within our reach ... if we just allow diplomacy the space it needs to get there,” Al-Busaidi said in an interview with CBS television news in Washington. “If the ultimate objective is to ensure forever that Iran cannot have a nuclear bomb, I think we have cracked that problem through these negotiations by agreeing [on] a very important breakthrough that has never been achieved any time before.” He added, “The singlemost important achievement, I believe, is the agreement that Iran will never ever have nuclear material that will create a bomb.” The US-Israel war on Iran may disprove Al-Busaidi's words. Iran's political leaders may now feel they must have The Bomb as the ultimate deterrent against the US and Israel.

Trump and Netanyahu have personal political reasons for waging war on Iran. Trump's approval rating is 39 per cent with 47 strongly disapprove of his handling of the presidency ahead of mid-term Congressional elections in the fall. Netanyahu's Likud bloc has 34-25 per cent approval rating while his personal rating stood at 2.8 on a 5-point scale. This is of concern for him as Israelis are set to vote for a new legislature by October 27th.

The US-Israel war on Iran will deflect temporarily global attention from Israel's consolidation of its illegal hold on occupied East Jerusalem and the West Bank and bombed, besieged and blockaded Gaza. Since the beginning of Ramadan, Israel has limited permits to for only 10,000 West Bank Palestinians to visit Jerusalem for prayers at al-Haram al-Sharif, the mosque compound on Mount Moriah. At the same time, Israel has extended the hours for Jewish Temple Mount activists to enter the compound and hold prayers which have been banned at this Muslim holy cite since Israel conquered East Jerusalem in 1967. Israeli police have also prevented Jerusalem Palestinians from entering the compound for evening and Friday noon communal prayers and prohibited the display of Ramadan lanterns and traditional decorations.

In the shadow of al-Aqsa in the neighbourhood of Silwan called Batan Al-Hawa, the Israelis have evicted Palestinians from their homes. Around 700 residents remain and are compelled to fight legal battles to avoid dispossession in the knowledge that Israel's supreme court normally rules in favour of settlers and their organisations.

In a state-supported campaign in the West Bank, Israeli settlers – often protected by the army – attack Palestinians, steal livestock, and torch their vehicles, fields and homes. At least 3,700 attacks were reported until the end of 2025, more than the previous 10 years combined. Some 1,094 West Bank Palestinians have been killed by Israeli soldiers and settlers since the October 7th, 2023, Hamas raid into Israel, the United Nations reported.

Israel's actions in the occupied West Bank and the Gaza Strip appear to be aimed at creating "permanent demographic change, raising concerns about ethnic cleansing," UN rights chief Volker Türk has said. He cited the year-long Israeli military operation in the northern West Bank that has displaced 32,000 Palestinians. US hostility towards Palestinians and indifference to their fate has fuelled this overt Israeli campaign, encouraged Israel to block essential supplies for Gaza and violate the US-sponsored October ceasefire by continuing its occupation of half of the strip and assault on the Hamas-held half.

While Hizbollah has abided by the 2024 ceasefire with Lebanon by halting attacks, Israel has mounted strikes on a daily basis and continued to occupy land and villages along the border. Israel has violated the ceasefire 10,000 times and killed at least 330 Lebanese, including 127 civilians. More than 1.2 million have been displaced of whom the majority are southern civilians.