Trump may not be warming up to Israeli PM’s moves

After last week's sixth White House meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, President Donald Trump said "nothing definitive" emerged from the encounter which lasted nearly three hours. On Iran, Netanyahu called for stiff measures to control Iranian uranium enrichment, curb its ballistic missile programme and end its support for regional allies: Palestinian Hamas, Lebanese Hizbollah, and Yemeni Houthis. Although he argued Israel’s security interests must be met, Netanyahu received no assurances that Trump is prepared to adjust US overall regional strategy to meet Israeli demands.

By opting for negotiations with Iran rather than war, Trump has freed himself from Netanyahu's iron grip on US policy and weakened Netanyahu ahead of this year's parliamentary election which his Likud party must win for his sake. He faces jail time for corruption once he is no longer in office.

Netanyahu has spent years trying to block a new nuclear deal between Washington and Tehran if it failed to address Israel’s key security demands. During his first term, under Israeli pressure Trump withdrew from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) reached by the US, UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China with Iran in exchange for lifting sanctions. This limited Iran's enrichment of uranium to 3.67 per cent purity (for power plants), its stockpile to 300 kilogrammes and its centrifuges to old models.

As this was a signal success for the previous Obama administration, Trump pulled out in May 2018. Iran waited for a year for the other signatories to make good on their commitments, but the US warned it would impose sanctions if they tried.

Now back in office, Trump clearly recognised this was a mistake when he announced last week an agreement with Iran was essential. "We have to get a deal with Iran. I think we can get a deal within the next month. I'll talk to them for as long as it takes." He added, "We have to get a deal, or it's going to be very traumatic, very traumatic." Indeed, it could as the US has amassed a naval armada in the Arabian Sea and dispatched war planes to bases in the Gulf to threaten an attack on Iran if there is no deal.

Its economy impacted by sanctions and international ostracism, Iran has held "positive" initial negotiations with the US in Oman and further talks are expected. This is why Netanyahu put forward his meeting with Trump but received little joy from this encounter.

On Gaza, Trump has also taken an initiative by forming his Board of Peace, which Netanyahu was compelled to join, and proposed a plan for the strip involving disarming Hamas, installing a Palestinian committee to administer Gaza, and calling for troops to form an International Stabilisation Force to oversee Israeli withdrawal from 58 per cent of Gaza and provide security. This has not pleased Netanyahu who, despite the October 10th ceasefire, continues to bomb Gaza. At least 600 Palestinians have been killed and 1,600 injured. Right-wingers in the cabinet who keep Netanyahu in office want to resettle Gaza 20 years after Israeli settlers were compelled to leave by then Prime Minister Ariel Sharon.

On the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Trump opposes Israeli annexation as this would scupper the internationally backed solution for the Arab-Israel dispute. This is the emergence of a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. "A stable West Bank keeps Israel secure and is in line with this administration’s goal to achieve peace in the region,” a US official said last week in response to new Israeli measures to expand Israeli control through land acquisition and settlement expansion.

US Arab and Muslim allies — the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey — condemned the measures as they were aimed at “entrenching settlement activity and enforcing a new legal and administrative reality in the occupied West Bank, thereby accelerating attempts at its illegal annexation and the displacement of the Palestinian people.”

The US love affair with Israel seems to be waning since ex-President Joe Biden, a self-proclaimed Zionist, left office. Trump did not visit Israel when he made his first visit abroad of this presidency to the Middle East in May, travelling to the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar. After being quizzed why he did not include Israel, Trump said, "This is good for Israel, having a relationship like I have with these countries, Middle Eastern countries, essentially all of them. I think it’s very good for Israel.”

Not necessarily, since Trump has not followed directives from Netanyahu. Trump's chief aim on this trip was to secure lucrative transactional deals for US businesses.

Why has Trump adopted an increasingly independent stand toward Israel? Three major polls taken last fall by the Pew Research Centre, The New York Times/Siena College, and The Washington Post show that support for Israel has been seriously reduced, especially among the young, Democrats, and US Jews. The Pew poll showed 59 per cent of responders has a negative view of the Israel government. The Times/Sienna poll among Democrats revealed that 54 per cent sympathises with Palestinians while only 12 per cent said they sympathise with Israelis. While 75 per cent of Republicans supported Trump's policy on Israel,73 per cent of Democrats opposed further military and economic aid to Israel, compared to 20 per cent of Republicans. While Republican Trump relies on loyal Republicans, he cannot get proposed legislation through Congress without Democrat support.

It is significant to note that this erosion of US public support for Israel has taken place under Netanyahu's watch, due to his unremitting war on Gaza and unrelenting support for West Bank settlements.