Democrats begin year 2026 with warning to Republicans

A shock election victory for Democrats in deep-red Texas on Saturday is giving the opposition party a jolt of momentum to begin 2026 — a year that will decide the fate of Donald Trump's twin congressional majorities, and possibly his presidency. Democrats elsewhere are seeing other signs, too, that the various dynamics that kept voters at home or willing to consider voting for Trump in 2024 are shifting. Despite being shy of the majority, members in both chambers are brimming with optimism and are beginning to talk openly about the possibility of pulling off a clean sweep of the GOP in November.

Saturday's runoff election in the Fort Worth area put a northern Texas district that voted for Donald Trump by 17 points in 2024 into the hands (briefly) of a Democrat, Taylor Rehmet, who supports statewide rent stabilization, vows to halt the sale of public lands, and end charter school voucher programs. It's a potential sign not only of the appeal of a message akin to Zohran Mamdani's in what is thought of as a much more conservative area, but also the rejuvenation of the Democratic brand in the wake of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden's campaign and administration.

Rehmet, who credited "everyday working people" in his victory speech, took money from the DNC during his election bid and was still outspent by his conservative opponent. His campaign, the Texas Tribune reported, began in part after Rehmet was introduced to a state representative who later became one of his top Latino backers at a fundraiser for the Harris campaign. he lesson here is not that Texas has suddenly jolted blue, or that Sen. John Cornyn's seat will change hands next year. The Texas Senate race remains favorable ground for Republicans, not least given that an ugly dispute between top Democrats vying for the seat emerged on Monday, endangering party unity and risking hurt feelings among the eventual loser's camp. But evidence is growing to support the idea that Democrats have recaptured the enthusiasm and anger against the status quo one year into Trump's second term, following a series of victories for the party in hotly contested statewide races.

That enthusiasm can be measured in more than just polling. It can also be measured in dollars, where Republicans are seeing their foes raise alarming sums in key races and putting their candidates at an early advantage. That reality is evident in Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is running laps around incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted in fundraising totals as he seeks his old job; Brown was a victim of the GOP-led wipeout in 2024. Sen. Jon Ossoff has a staggering fundraising lead of roughly $9m over any of his Republican competitors, according to Roll Call.

And in Maine, both of Susan Collins's would-be challengers outraised her in the last quarter of 2024, though the longtime incumbent retains a cash-on-hand advantage. The real success story in the race is Graham Platner, who is outraising both the sitting senator and sitting governor, Janet Mills, as he seeks the Democratic nomination. In Alaska, former Rep. Mary Peltola said she outraised incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan's Q4 fundraising total in a single 24-hour period after launching her bid for Senate. In short: Democrats are in the money. And the party's leadership is even recovering from some of the malaise it suffered under through 2025, when leaders like Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries were faulted by some members for insufficient resistance to the Trump administration and Elon Musk's DOGE initiative.

Jeffries was positively glowing on Monday as he spoke to reporters about the five congressional seats changed by Texas Republicans in a controversial mid-decade redistricting project aimed at giving the GOP more seats in the House: "The Republicans done effed up in Texas and they know it." He added that he saw a path for Democrats to win all five of the newly-drawn seats. He added that Rehmet's victory was "a shellacking for Republicans in Texas" over the weekend. Democrats are clearly entering the 2026 primary season with optimism and the wind at the party's back. In Washington, Trump's mass deportation chaos is eroding support for Republicans on one of their strongest issues, while the party offers little in the way of a unified response on the issue of affordability.

And last week, a Florida Republican congressman announced his impending retirement. It's a reminder that, as troubling as the map looks for Republicans now, it could look a whole lot worse if more key GOP incumbents tire of abuse from the White House and the president. "We have a clear and strong path to winning back the Senate. A year ago, no one thought that," the Democratic senate leader told Politico last month in an interview. Since January of 2025, a GOP incumbent in North Carolina, Thom Tillis, had a public break-up with Trump over the president's legislative agenda and announced his plans to retire. Democrats are now favored to win his seat. He added: "Our north star is winning the Senate. That's what motivates what we do in each thing."