Trump’s Gaza reconstruction plan is not realistic

The US plan for Gaza's reconstruction presented at the World Economic Forum in Davos is not connected with the realities of the narrow coastal strip. The plan, designed by Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, is predicated on the end of two years of hostilities between Hamas and Israel, Hamas early disarmament which the movement rejects, its hand-over of governance to a technocratic Palestinian committee, and acceptance by largely sceptical Gazans.

Reconstruction is a mammoth task as the UN estimates that 78 per cent of structures in Gaza have been damaged or destroyed. The UN, European Union and World Bank estimate that rebuilding Gaza will cost $70 billion. Gaza's revival is to be under the auspices of Trump's Board of Peace, announced at Davos, which includes Kushner, US special envoy Steve Witkoff as well as Qatar and Turkey and a reluctant Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. He is the chief regional aggressor, faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant, and has hinted that he could have a greenlight from the US to resume the Gaza war which is keeping him in office.

Kushner's ambitious "New Gaza" plan provides for 180 luxury skyscrapers stretching along the Mediterranean coast, presumably to cater to tourists, highrise housing in the Rafah area, an airport and seaport near the southern border with Egypt, IT data centres, an industrial zone and an agricultural area, the latter located in an unsuitable sandy area. The output of a real state magnet, this plan is the latest version of old proposals which have gone by the wayside. His choice of site for an agricultural zone showed that Kushner should have consulted a map of Gaza's landscape before finalizing his plan.

Trump responded to the plan by admitting, "I'm a real estate person at heart and it's all about location. And I said: 'Look at this location on the sea. Look at this beautiful piece of property. What it could be for so many people.'" It must not be forgotten that his own widely rejected plan for Gaza involved the expulsion of its Palestinian population and the strip's development to suit wealthy Israelis and other foreigners and appeal to tourists.

Commentators sharply criticised the plan. Diplomat and rights advocate Mohamad Safa posted on X: “They are selling Gaza in Davos.” Novelist Susan Abulhawa told Middle East Eye that this would mean “the indigenous traditions and social fabric of this land will be obliterated utterly.”

Kushner's plan is unrealistic since Israel has no intention of withdrawing its troops from the more than half of Gaza they occupy. Israel does not abide by the October ceasefire in Gaza during which the Israeli military has killed more than 477 and maintained the displacement of 90 per cent of Gazans. Hardliners in the fragile coalition government headed by Netanyahu reject an end to the war, launched in October 2023 after the attack on southern Israel by Hamas which killed 1,200 and abducted 250.

While Hamas has, in principle, agreed to disarm eventually the International Stabilisation Force (ISF) has not yet been established to take over. Without the ISF, Gaza would be lawless and at the mercy of armed Palestinian gangs, several backed by Israel, which are kept in check by Hamas. Potential contributors of contingents for the ISF do not want their soldiers to engage in gun battles with Palestinians – even when they belong to illegal gangs.

Until these obstacles are removed, it is too early to plan for post-Israeli occupation, post-Hamas Gaza.

Hamas has said it would disarm and step down once there is a Palestinian state in East Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza. However, Hamas is likely, under pressure, to agree once there is a convincing path to a Palestinian state. A virtual Palestinian state has been recognised by 157 of the 193 members of the United Nations, 81 per cent of the international community. But this is not enough. Those countries which do not recognise Palestine, include Israel, its subservient ally the US, and Germany, Italy, Japan, and South Korea as well as a slew of small countries influenced by the US.

Once Israel has withdrawn its forces and Hamas has proceeded with disarmament, the realistic and appropriate plan for the reconstruction of Gaza could be implemented. This was tabled last March by Egypt and approved by the Arab League and Arab governments. Under this plan, Gazans would not be forced to leave the territory, and temporary housing would be provided for families along with humanitarian aid.

The first 6-month phase of this plan would cost $3 billion and be managed by the Palestinian technocratic committee and involve clearing rubble, restoring infrastructure, repairing 200,000 damaged homes with 60,000 ready for occupation. During the second phase clearing ruins would continue, 400,000 homes would be built, water, electricity, and tele-phone/mobile services restored, and an industrial, port and industrial zone would be built. The cost would be $20 billion, and implementation could last several years. The third phase would involve administration by the technocratic committee. President Mahmoud Abbas could call an election for parliament in both the West Bank and Gaza with the aim of installing a democratic Palestinian government for both wings of the virtual Palestinian state.