Starmer’s diplomacy wins Trump dramatic U-turn

It is impossible to see the last week as anything other than a diplomatic triumph for Sir Keir Starmer. He has stood firm on Greenland, faced down the White House’s tariff threats, brought together European allies and, by drawing a line in the sand, helped force a U-turn from Donald Trump that few saw coming. The clouds that had gathered have lifted, according to The Independent.

Sir Keir is correct with his strong stance. Of course, he has not worked alone, helped by acute pressure applied by almost all of America’s allies, by Republican senators, American public opinion and, perhaps most persuasively, by the adverse reaction of financial markets to Trump’s policy.

Still, Sir Keir ended the week vindicated and enjoying enhanced respect. Combining respect with resolve, the special relationship somehow survived the turbulence. It was far from inevitable.

All this is not to ignore personal poll ratings at home. They make for grim reading. Yet if Sir Keir were as successful in his domestic agenda as he has been in foreign affairs, he would be comfortably looking forward to the round of elections in May and, indeed, a likely second term of office.

Nevertheless, being successful abroad only reinforces the prime minister’s position at home. Those who would seek to cast him aside and replace him themselves are weakened by his growing influence on the international stage.

None of his would-be adversaries has (yet) to show the authority and gravitas that the prime minister has earned from his international peers. As rumours again swirl about movement by the Greater Manchester mayor and leadership hopeful Andy Burnham, who supposedly has his eye on running for the seat being vacated by Labour’s Andrew Gwynne, we would do well to remember that.

The ambition of every British premier is to act as a transatlantic “bridge” between the US and Europe. This has been true before, during and since Britain’s membership of the EU, but was obviously made hugely more difficult by Brexit and then by the arrival of Trump for his second term of office in “America First” mode.

Against the odds and a legacy of bad blood from the Johnson and Truss era, Sir Keir has managed to “reset” relations with the EU, particularly in the defence sphere, while also negotiating a relatively advantageous tariff regime with the Americans, not to mention a trade deal with India.

With Emmanuel Macron and France, Britain is playing a leading role in the “coalition of the willing” in defence of Ukraine while simultaneously offering measured support to the Trump peace plan. A similar approach has been followed with the war in Gaza, where the prime minister has mostly held his party together. He has done all this, it is worth mentioning, even after losing his ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, and changing his foreign secretary.

There is also better cooperation with France and Germany on Channel crossings by migrants — though still not enough — and encouraging talk about a process of rebuilding economic ties with the EU, not least to boost economic growth. Labour may yet commit to a more ambitious process of ever-closer collaboration in time for the next general election. It would be popular.

But that wistful thought reminds us that, for all his dedicated work on foreign affairs, for which he’s been unfairly dubbed “Never-here Keir”, it is indeed at home that the future of his premiership will be determined.

It is difficult to imagine any of his principal rivals managing recent events abroad as successfully as the prime minister has done, and that goes for the many pretenders to the throne in his own party as well as Kemi Badenoch and Nigel Farage, who sided with Trump on the Greenland issue just as the president was executing his U-turn.