Fate of Palestinians up in the air as millions still remain stateless

The regional portents for the new year may have been given a hit by last Monday’s meeting at Mar-a-Largo in Florida between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu. The encounter came at a time the approval rate for both men had sunk below 50 per cent. While Trump claimed this was 60 per cent, pollsters fixed it at 44.1 per cent; Netanyahu's rating was even lower at 41 per cent.

The Israeli leader played Trump's longing for awards by conferring on him Israel's chief cultural honour, the Israel Prize, "for his tremendous contributions to Israel and the Jewish people." This was the first time the prize has been offered to a non-Israeli. It, of course, does not make up for Trump's bitter disappointment over failing to secure the Nobel Peace Prize, but assuages his loss to a certain extent.

The visit to Washington gave Netanyahu a public relations boost ahead of Israel's parliamentary election which must take place by October 27th this year. This poll will be the first since the attack on southern Israel on October 7th, 2023, by Hamas which killed 1,200 and abducted 251. As a complaisant Israel failed to detect and deflect this action, public trust has been undermined in Netanyahu's security credentials. Nevertheless, during their joint news conference, Trump praised Netanyahu, saying that if there had been another leader on that day it’s possible “Israel would not exist” right now. This is, of course, a typical Trumpian exaggeration. Israel's existence was never threatened by Palestinian Hamas or Lebanon's Hezbollah. Israel is the region's military hegemon and the only state armed with nuclear bombs.

Warfare was discussed during the Trump-Netanyahu meeting. Trump has, reportedly, given Netanyahu a "green light" to take military action against Hezbollah "if necessary." The two men also agreed that Hamas – which still rules Gaza – would pay a heavy price if it fails to disarm in accordance with the October 2025 Trump plan for a ceasefire and peace in Gaza.

There is nothing Netanyahu would like better than armed action as he is campaigning for re-election as a wartime prime minister. This diverts attention from his failure to predict and interdict Hamas 2023 attack on Israel as well as from his trials for corruption, bribery and breach of trust.

In one case, he is accused of accepting gifts of cigars and champagne from wealthy businessmen in exchange for favours. In a second of offering to help improve the circulation of an Israeli newspaper in exchange for positive coverage of himself and his family. And, in a third case, he allegedly promoted regulations favourable to an Israeli telecoms company in exchange for positive coverage by a popular news website. He has pleaded "not guilty" and branded the trials as a "witchhunt" by opponents.

The trials have been taking place on stop and start schedules as Netanyahu has argued he could not take time off from his duties as a wartime leader to testify. He finally had to appear but, so far, no judgements have been issued. While Netanyahu and Trump have asked Israeli President Isaac Herzog for a pardon, he has argued that judicial officials must consider this request "which carries with it significant implications."

The main issues are that Netanyahu has not admitted guilt and cannot be pardoned unless he does or is convicted. However, Israel's supreme court has ruled that the president can pardon an individual before conviction if it is in the public interest or if there are extreme personal circumstances.

Netanyahu also faces an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) for war crimes and crimes against humanity allegedly committed during the Gaza war between Israel and Hamas. This warrant has complicated Netanyahu's foreign travel as several states, including Britain, have said they would act on the (ICC) warrant.

While Trump is not running for office in November as this is a parliamentary byelection, his Republican party could very well lose its majority in the House of Representatives as well as key seats in the Senate. Trump's Republicans could find it difficult or impossible to vote legislation on Trump’s initiatives with Democrats in charge in the House and/or the Senate.

Between his first and second terms in office, Trump also faced indictments in New York, Georgia and Florida. He was charged with falsifying business records to avoid taxation, retaining classified national security documents, and attempting to overturn Democrat Joe Biden's victory in the 2020 presidential election. He has also been accused of sexual harassment and sexual assault, with one accusation resulting in Trump being held liable in a civil case. He was also charged with paying hush money to a woman with whom he had an affair ahead of the 2016 election.

As we head in 2026 into this deeply troubled world and, particularly, this unstable region, two seriously flawed leaders are seeking to manage events for their own political benefit. Whether they opt for war or no war will depend on their personal calculations rather than on the interests of the US, Israel, or the Arab world. Peace in this area is not an option as long as Israel occupies all of Palestine, its fate remains unresolved and millions of Palestinians remain stateless although 157 of the 193 UN member states recognise Palestine as a state while 163 UN member states recognise Israel.