Wild card leaders to mould shape of ME events in 2026

The new year begins with two wild card leaders whose antics could determine developments in this region. The first is local. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has violated the Gaza ceasefire, occupied half of Gaza, sabotaged the Gaza peace process and refused to curb attacks by Israeli settlers on West Bank Palestinians and their property.

He seeks to draw out the war in Gaza and maintain insecurity in the West Bank while campaigning for the re-election of his Likud party to keep himself in power. Citing Israel’s involvement in warfare, he has proposed either bringing forward to June the Israeli election to the 120-seat Knesset although it is due on October 27th or postponing polling altogether.

Following last June's 12-day skirmish with Iran, he has also tried to drag the US into a full-scale war with that country with the aim of destroying its ballistic missiles and capacity to manufacture these weapons. Netanyahu is convinced this would cement his position as prime minister for another four years although his approval rating had fallen to 41 per cent at the end of November, the lowest in over a decade.

Fifty-eight per cent of Israeli adults did not approve of him although The Economist of Britain ranked Israel's economy as the "third best" in performance in 2025 following Portugal and Ireland. Economic success appears to have little effect.

Out of office, Netanyahu faces trial, sentencing and punishment for corruption, bribery and breach of trust at a time he was communications minister (2014-2017). He and his wife Sarah have been accused of receiving more than $195,000 in gifts of expensive cigars, champagne and jewellery in exchange for tax breaks for returning wealthy Israelis, assistance in securing a US visa, and positive publicity on television for the Netanyahu family. He also has been charged with promising changes in media regulations which would be favourable to the business interests of the owner of Bezeq, Israel's largest media group. Finally, Netanyahu was offered positive coverage in the daily Yedioth Ahronoth if he would use his influence to push legislation benefitting its publisher.

On the global scene, US President Donald Trump is the second, far more important wild card. While it is said "character is destiny," Trump is seen as corrupt, extroverted, ambitious, domineering, confrontational, unconcerned with rules, and lacking empathy, according to a YouGov/Economist poll conducted in December. As far as Israel is concerned, unlike his predecessor Joe Biden, Trump is not a self-proclaimed Zionist, and he owes nothing to Netanyahu. Therefore, it is difficult to predict what will emerge when they meet at Trump's Mar-a-Lago Florida resort on Monday (today).

Commentators and critics fear that Trump could allow Netanyahu to carry on his depredations. Fourteen countries, including France, Britain, Canada, Germany and Japan, have condemned Israel’s recent decision to approve new Jewish settlements in the occupied West Bank. They called on the Israeli government to reverse the decision and to stop expanding settlements.

In a joint statement they said: “We, States of Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Iceland, Ireland, Japan, Malta, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain and the United Kingdom condemn the approval by the Israeli security cabinet of 19 new settlements in the occupied West Bank." Under this policy 69 settlements have been approved over the past three years.

While Netanyahu seeks to maintain regional tensions by waging war on Gaza, backing illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank, and threatening Iran, Trump wants peace and quiet in this region so the US can step away from involvement in Arab-Iranian-Israeli affairs.

Trump's approach to domestic and foreign policy is "America First." He has deliberately undermined confidence in the multinational global order by calling for US annexation of Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal. He has withdrawn the US from key international institutions and organizations such as the UN Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization, United Nations Human Rights Council and the Paris climate change agreement. He has expressed his intention of withdrawing from the World Health Organization. Trump has suspended funding for the US Agency for International Development (USAID) and maintained the funding cut for the UN agency caring for Palestinian refugees (UNWRA).

He has also countered the world's free trade economic order by imposing stiff tariffs on imports to "protect" US businesses and farmers. This has, however, been harmful to enterprises which buy key parts for vehicles and other machinery from foreign firms and import steel and aluminium. The sale of US soybeans and meal has been halted by China, the largest market for this produce. While Trump has offered farmers $12 billion in compensation, they argue their losses are far higher. Some small farmers expect to be bankrupted next year and go bust.

Finally, the Trump administration has ordered deportation of undocumented foreign workers and residents although many fill vital roles across most sectors, including construction, agriculture, healthcare, hospitality, transportation, retail sales, and at the upper end of the scale, high tech. They do jobs US citizens do not want or are not trained to perform and contribute considerably to the country's economy. Despite Trump's machinations, The Economist reported the US economy, the world's largest, grew at an annual rate of 4.3 per cent in 2025 which was better than expected, and marked the strongest growth in two years.

Even wild card leadership has clearly not undermined these countries' economic momentum over the past two years but it remains to be seen how they will fare in 2026.