Five things to watch in Florida politics in 2026

Claire Heddles, Tribune News Service

After Trump’s first year back in office, backlash to his immigration policies and affordability could become the defining issues in Florida politics next year. As the campaign cycle kicks into high gear in the race to replace Gov. Ron DeSantis and the national battle over control of Congress, the question of how the governor and first lady will exert their influence and what happens with Florida’s redistricting process are the other biggest political unknowns heading into 2026. Florida’s legislative session starting in two weeks could also have sweeping political implications for the rest of the year.

Democrats plan to put affordability front and centre in November, as Republicans squabble over how to make property tax reform their answer to the problem. Plus, there’s the prospect of another spending war over a marijuana ballot amendment.

Here are five political indicators to watch in 2026:

Immigration backlash: Immigration enforcement has gone from being one of Trump’s primary campaign platforms in 2024 to one of the biggest landmines for Republicans heading into 2026, according to former Florida Republican Congressman Carlos Curbelo. “The immigration issue, remarkably, has become toxic for Republicans,” Curbelo told the Herald. “Just a little over a year ago, it was extremely toxic for Democrats, and Republicans have turned that issue over in a year’s time.” Trump has not indicated a planned shift in strategy next year, leaving Florida Republicans to grapple with how to campaign to voters that think the hardline policies have gone too far. Latinas for Trump co-founder Ileana Garcia, a state senator, called Trump’s mass deportation agenda “not what we voted for.”

Miami Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar — whose seat Democrats are targeting in 2026 — has been cautioning for months that a negative reaction to Trump’s immigration policies is coming. “I’ve been warning, if the GOP does not deliver, we will lose the Hispanic vote, all over the country,” Salazar said last November.

She recently called an immigration application pause from almost 20 countries “un-American” and this week shared study findings showing “current immigration enforcement is harming American citizens and destabilising families.” Immigration could end up being the biggest issue in the Florida governor’s race, according to Curbelo, with the level of political backlash at the polls dependent on whether Trump changes course this year.

“If the situation is the same in the fall of next year, where people are happy about border security but frustrated and disturbed by overly aggressive immigration enforcement, it could really generate strong headwinds for Republicans up and down the ballot,” Curbelo said.

The legislative session: Florida Democrats are centring their 2026 campaign messaging around affordability, putting added pressure on what the Florida Legislature does this year to address the rising cost of living in Florida. “Republicans can’t really blame anyone but themselves, given the fact that they’ve had universal control of state government for now almost three decades,” said Fernand Amandi, a pollster and strategist for Democrat David Jolly’s gubernatorial campaign. Amandi said affordability could become a defining issue in the race. How the Florida Legislature ends up ruling on property taxes, and their ability to convince voters that proposed cuts will address an affordability crisis, could be a determining factor in how well Florida Republicans fare in the 2026 midterms, Curbelo said.

“Republicans are going to have to have good answers for the issue because they’re going to have to run on it,” he said. The Legislature’s plan to redraw Florida’s congressional maps — whether during the regular session as House Speaker Danny Perez wants, or during a special session as DeSantis and Senate President Ben Albritton want — could also impact the level of national investment in Florida’s election cycle ahead the midterm battle over who will win control of the US House.

Ballot amendment fights: The other factor in how candidates will fare in Florida’s elections could hinge on what else makes it on the November ballot. The campaign to get marijuana legalisation on the ballot has until February to gather the rest of the necessary signatures. The ballot amendment could lead to another round of massive spending and a Republican split — a replay of the now-RNC chairman Joe Gruters’ stance against DeSantis on Amendment 3 in 2024. DeSantis said he’s collaborating with Florida lawmakers on a resolution to get a constitutional amendment on property taxes on the ballot in November too, but the governor has yet to put his plans in writing, the Herald/Times Tallahassee Bureau has reported.

“Whatever the governor and the Legislature end up doing on property taxes, to the extent that they can try to own that and take credit for it even if it is a ballot question, that could definitely support Republicans up and down the ballot,” Curbelo said.

What will the DeSantises do? Republican US Rep. Byron Donalds is in the lead in fundraising in the governor’s race and has the endorsement of President Donald Trump. But the tides in Donalds’ favour could still change if “somebody comes out with a full-throated DeSantis endorsement or if Trump somehow, some way pulls the endorsement,” said University of North Florida political pollster Michael Binder. DeSantis still has high favourability ratings among Florida Republicans and his endorsement could have significant sway in the race, he added. If first lady Casey DeSantis enters the Republican primary, there remains a key segment of the Republican voting population Binder says she would appeal to.

“If you think about Republican, retiree women in The Villages and in Southwest Florida — Casey is super appealing to those voters, I don’t know that Byron has that connection there,” Binder said. If she does become a Republican candidate, the controversial routing of Medicaid settlement funds to a political committee through the charity created to support the first lady’s signature Hope Florida program will likely continue to be one of the biggest political stories of the year, and a defining issue in the Republican gubernatorial primary. Gov. DeSantis has also not given any indication he plans to take a back seat in 2026 as a lame duck governor, and seems poised to try to land political wins on his way out the door.

He’s already been butting heads with House Speaker Perez over slashing property taxes and a mid-decade redistricting effort — in which national Republican hopes to shore up seats ahead of the midterms are falling on Florida.

Special elections ahead of the midterms: DeSantis has yet to schedule a special election for the Miami state House seat vacated by Republican Vicki Lopez after she was appointed to the Miami-Dade County Commission to replace Mayor Eileen Higgins, meaning the winner likely won’t participate in this year’s legislative session. But the race over a seat Republicans flipped red in 2022 could prove to be a mid-year bellwether of the effectiveness of Florida Democrats’ messaging in competitive districts and ability to get voters to the polls. Driving up voter turnout in Democratic areas was a key part of Higgins’ win this month, according to precinct data. The Miami race will likely also be a mid-year test of Republicans’ ability to retain Trump voters in Miami — a key part of their winning coalition in 2024 — ahead of the midterms. House District 113 includes Brickell, Key Biscayne and parts of Little Havana and Coconut Grove.