Shabana Mahmood’s decisions could reshape British politics

Both Labour and the Tories need Shabana Mahmood to succeed, yet many in both parties refuse to accept that she holds their future in her hands. The home secretary has dominated the news this week, with a high-profile Sunday TV interview with Laura Kuenssberg and two major policy announcements in parliament on Monday and Thursday, and she shows no sign of slowing down. In an interview with The Times today, she continued to attack all sides — impatient, confident and uncompromising. One of her targets was soft: Cat Eccles, the rebel Labour MP who accused her of peddling myths about asylum to “appease the electorate”. Oops.

Mahmood said: “Appeasing voters is a misrepresentation ... In every constituency, there will be a coalition of people that can broadly agree on most things, and it’s your job as a parliamentarian to reflect those views.” She added that voters see a system that is broken: “What I don’t think anyone should do is gaslight them and pretend that that’s just not what’s happening, because it is.”

Most Labour MPs agree and welcome such strong leadership. Yet the real surprise was the praise from Conservatives and Reform politicians. Nigel Farage said she “sounds like a Reform supporter” and invited her to join his party. The unexpected response confused some Labour MPs, such as the unfortunate Eccles, and unsettled Kemi Badenoch, the Tory leader, who criticised Mahmood for not going far enough. It was a fair point: most of Mahmood’s measures affect relatively few people and will not stop the boats – but politically, it was a misstep. George Osborne has pointed out that the Conservatives need Labour to succeed on border control. Badenoch cannot fight the next election with immigration as a major issue, given the previous government’s failures to stop the boats and the quadrupling of legal immigration.

Labour must stop the boats to have any chance of holding power at the next election. By the same logic, the Conservatives need Labour to stop the boats if they hope to survive. If Farage were to become prime minister, it would be bad for Labour and, in my view, for the country. If Reform wins more seats than the Tories, it could mark the end of the Tory party. Their own polling model, leaked to The Telegraph, suggests the Conservatives would win just 14 seats — at the extreme end of a range of projections from reputable research firms. As Osborne put it, talking about immigration: “If we do not deal with it, we’re going to lose the whole show.” Ed Balls, his former shadow and podcast partner, agreed “100 per cent”. This context sheds light on Badenoch’s recent parliamentary improvements. Yes, she has performed better, and talk of a pointless leadership challenge has subsided, but in reality, the Tories face only two plausible outcomes at the next election: survival as the main right-wing party or takeover by Reform. That choice rests on Mahmood’s success — or failure.

Unsurprisingly, this analysis does not sit well with those who do not share Osborne and Balls’s admiration for the home secretary. Reform supporters deride the so-called “uniparty”, a mindless social media meme, which may be evidence that they see Mahmood as a threat.

A mirror image of this view exists on the left: the Eccles faction of Labour MPs, along with Greens, Lib Dems and nationalists, claim Mahmood seeks to appease the Reform-supporting, racist minority. At least, I suspect this is what Eccles meant, but her words echoed the semi-mythical “no compromise with the electorate” mantra of the Bennites in the Eighties. Their assumption — that Mahmood’s proposals are no different from Reform policy — is mistaken. Farage aims to revoke settlement rights from those already granted permanent residency.

Most left-leaning critics, however, start with the same goal as Mahmood. As Ian Lavery, Socialist Campaign Group MP, stated on Monday: “We want to stop the boats.” It is pointless, therefore, for Lavery, Eccles and others to tell voters the boats don’t matter and that they should focus on the government’s other achievements.