Tim Walz’s bid for third term puts some Democrats on edge

Minnesota state Sen. Judy Seeberger may face a tough reelection next year after winning her previous race by a few hundred votes, but it’s the top of the ticket she’s worried about. “I have some concerns, and I’m not alone,” Seeberger, DFL-Afton, said of Gov. Tim Walz’s run for a third term. “A lot of us who have sort of talked about it are hoping that it’s the right decision.” Even so, she called Walz a “phenomenal partner” and said she is supporting his bid. Seeberger isn’t the only Democrat navigating this tension. Sen. Rob Kupec, DFL-Moorhead, praised Walz’s achievements while expressing concern about his decision to run again.

“We’re in a time in American history where voters are just very, very fickle,” Kupec said, noting that dynamic doesn’t always bode well for a candidate seeking a third term. Publicly and privately, a number of Democrats are questioning whether Walz’s attempt to become the first Minnesota governor to win three consecutive four-year terms could endanger their party’s hold on the office, as he faces declining support outside the metro and scrutiny for fraud cases during his administration.

Some even worry it could affect other down-ballot races. All four statewide offices, a US Senate seat, control of the Legislature and the state’s eight seats in Congress are on the ballot next fall. At the same time, many other Democrats are rallying behind Walz, saying he is the party’s standard-bearer and has proven his doubters wrong before. “To get reelected after you shut down restaurants is a pretty big accomplishment,” said state Sen. Matt Klein, DFL-Mendota Heights, who’s running for Congress.

Walz cruised to reelection in 2022 despite backlash to his handling of COVID-19 restrictions and civil unrest in Minneapolis. After scoring big wins across the country earlier this month, Democrats believe the political winds could again favor them heading into the first midterm election of President Donald Trump’s second term. But in Minnesota, it’s unclear if next year’s election will be as much a referendum on Trump as on Walz. The governor’s campaign is making the case that Walz is the leader Democrats need to counter the president.

“With Donald Trump coming after states like ours, we need a strong, experienced leader fighting back,” Walz’s spokesman, Teddy Tschann, said in a statement. “Governor Walz will never back down and he will always protect Minnesota from Trump.” Republicans see an opening after Walz’s failed run for vice president prompted intense scrutiny on his record that forced him to clarify some past claims he made about his military record and travels to China. The DFL governor’s support has eroded outside the Twin Cities, with a June Minnesota Star Tribune poll showing at least 6 in 10 voters outside Hennepin and Ramsey counties disapproved of his performance.

“We have voters in greater Minnesota asking about a Walz third term,” said Sen. Nick Frentz, campaign chair for the Minnesota Senate DFL Caucus. Frentz, DFL-North Mankato, acknowledged there are some legislative districts where “the assumption is a third-term incumbent is less of a thrill than in other places.” But he said he thinks Walz will answer these voters’ questions, win his election and have a positive effect on the ticket. Kupec, who won his race by about 5 percentage points in 2022, had a more pointed critique about Walz’s standing in greater Minnesota. He said he wishes Walz would have spent more time there in recent years.

“He knows how to talk to rural voters,” Kupec said. “I’m not sure that he has done it enough.” Still, Kupec said, Walz has plenty of time to make his case. Another point of discomfort for some Democrats centers on the fraud cases that have unfolded during Walz’s tenure. Fraudsters have stolen hundreds of millions of dollars from state-run programs in recent years. Walz and his administration have taken aggressive steps recently to tamp down on fraud after several new indictments, but Republicans — and even some Democrats — think it’s a liability for the administration.

“I hope we have a DFL primary,” said Minneapolis City Council member Jason Chavez, a democratic socialist, in a social media post earlier this month. “The Walz administration being riddled with fraud doesn’t give me confidence. It’s a top-of-the-ticket liability.” Chavez did not respond to a request for further comment. Some DFLers are trying to address the issue of fraud directly, even if doing so puts an unflattering spotlight on the Walz administration. Sen. Heather Gustafson, DFL-Vadnais Heights, has been handing out campaign flyers with a blunt message: “While some in power look the other way when fraud happens, I don’t.”

Asked about the line, Gustafson said: “I am putting all of my energy and my focus into my district, and sometimes that means I need to put my district before my party.”

Despite concerns from some rank-and-file lawmakers, House DFL Leader Zack Stephenson and Senate Majority Leader Erin Murphy remain publicly confident about having Walz at the top of the ticket. “House DFLers won a majority both times Tim Walz was our nominee for governor, and I have no doubt we will do it again next fall,” Stephenson said in a statement.