Rayner's return further damages Starmer's leadership

If the prime minister had hoped for a rare quiet weekend, he had another think coming. The mooted income tax rise might be firmly off the agenda, and the sudden flurry of leadership speculation at least partially closed down, thanks to denials on the part of the supposed challenger, Wes Streeting, and a categorical no sackings pledge from Downing Street. But there on the front pages and eloquently back in the public square was none other than Angela Rayner.

It is probably fair to say that, despite his generous hand-written response to her resignation just over two months ago, Sir Keir Starmer had no expectation — or hope? — that his former deputy and housing secretary would be back in the political swim so soon, according to The Independent.

Ms Rayner's absence from the front bench might have diminished the government in some ways, given her colourful character and her effectiveness as a parliamentary performer, but there were, or at least could have been, advantages for Sir Keir in terms of streamlining the government's message and silencing negative comparisons with his own communication skills.

But there she was, with her first interview since her resignation in September, and a whole new bout of Labour leadership speculation, with Ms Rayner's hat now added to those already thought to be in the ring. And to anyone protesting that the timing of Ms Rayner's reappearance might be entirely coincidental and carry no significance whatever in the greater scheme of things, there is an answer.

Ms Rayner did not need to give an interview this weekend, however focused it was on her constituency work, and politicians have plenty of formulations to call on when they want to dispel unwelcome speculation. But there were no categorical denials about leadership ambitions. There was rather an emphasis on service, from the backbenches or the front bench, and a call on Labour to end what she called "arrogant tittle-tattle". Does this forthright voice from the wings, with its unequivocal advice to a party once again at sixes and sevens, sound like someone who sees her front-bench political career as over?

For hints of her campaign pitch, what is more, there is no need to look beyond her official resignation speech three weeks ago, where she claims legislation on employment rights, Hillsborough and renters' rights, as well as the housing targets, as her own. To which might be added the left-leaning Budget measures set out in her subsequently leaked memo before the Spring Statement earlier this year.

Ms Rayner's road to return may not be completely without potholes, however, even though none may prove lethal. While she retains considerable grassroots popularity as an authentic politician and her exemplary backstory as a teenage mother made good, the finding that she failed to pay the tax due when she bought her seaside flat is held against her and linked in the minds of some to the gifted clothes and holidays that proved problematic for several ministers, up to and including Sir Keir, in the early months of Labour's government.

The argument that there is "one law for them and one law for us" transferred from the past to the present government almost without missing a beat, with Ms Rayner among those implicated. Her recognition that this remains a political liability may help to explain the very direct statement in the same speech, where she said: "There is no excuse not to pay taxes owed, and I will do so."

How enduring a mark on her record this turns out to be remains to be seen. After all, the parliamentary standards commissioner found that she had shown no lack of integrity. The recent lack of sanction against the chancellor herself over a compliance issue, it could be argued, muddies the waters a little. And the high-profile re-entry of Ms Rayner into the forefront of public life — if that is what we are seeing — cannot but complicate the prime minister's position, given that it comes amid what has been the most damaging speculation so far about his ability to do the job.