Syria investors wary despite US normalisation

Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa's visit to the White House normalised relations between Damascus and Washington but left Israel out of the equation. The traditional slogan used to be, "There can be no war with Israel without Egypt and no Arab peace with Israel without Syria" which the late Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser called, "The beating heart of Arabism." Egypt made its peace with Israel in 1979 while Anwar Sadat was in charge, but Syria remains formally at war with Israel. While in the US Sharaa made it clear that this is not the time for such a step although it has been suggested that he might settle for the return of one-third of the Golan Heights which Israel seized in 1967 in exchange for peace.

This has been rejected by Israel. Once in occupation, Israel expelled most of its Arab and Circassian inhabitants who now number in the hundreds of thousands and form an influential political force in Syria. Israel also planted 30,000 illegal Israeli settlers alongside 24,000 local Druze most of whom retain Syrian nationality.

Normalisation with the US on its own is important for Sharaa personally and for Syria. Before he left Damascus, he was granted “respectability” since the designation of "terrorist" was lifted. He heads Haya't Tahrir al-Sham, the movement which ousted the Assads last December, but has long been branded a "terrorist" movement by the US and the West. In a bid to rejoin the international community as a whole, Sharaa, travelled to Brazil before going to the US to attend the United Nations COP30 summit where he pledged to back global efforts to limit climate change. As an unbeliever in climate change Trump did not go and was criticised for his absence. Sharaa had already travelled to the Gulf and Saudi Arabia.

While meeting Donald Trump, Sharaa committed the Syrian military to the battle against Daesh remnants still roaming the desert between Syria and Iraq. To show Washington it is serious about prosecuting this campaign Syrian security agencies arrested 70 extremists ahead of Sharaa's visit.

The normalisation process with the US has also meant the immediate partial lifting of US sanctions on Syria as well as the suspension of the Congressional Caesar Act which penalised banks, firms, and individuals for doing business and investing in Syria under the Assads, who were backed by Russia and Iran. However, until this legislation is repealed, potential investors will remain wary of funding development in Syria since there is concern that the Caesar Act could be revived. Without investment in Syria's war-ravaged infrastructure — which could cost $600-900 billion — there can be no economic advancement and no political stability which is a primary goal of US normalisation.

"The world watched this tragedy unfold for 14 years and couldn't do anything to stop this massive crime," Sharaa said of the Syrian civil war. "So, the world today should provide support to Syria." Trump has not committed aid or investment.

Washington’s relationship with Syria has been troubled ever since March 1949 when the US Central Intelligence Agency is said to have supported a military coup against President Shukri al-Quwatly who was accused by Syria’s army of buying inferior arms ahead of the 1948 war with Israel. The US interest in removing him was sparked by Quwatly's opposition to Tapline, the Trans-Arabian Pipeline that until 1983 transported oil from Saudi Arabia to the Lebanese port of Sidon. Instead of stabilising Syria and discouraging external interference, this set off a series of coups in 1954, 1963, and 1966 which ended when in 1970 air force chief Hafez al-Assad backed by the Baath party took over and his son was in power until last year. However, from the 2011 Arab Spring unrest the Assads faced violent paramilitary and political challenges and Syrian cities and towns — excluding Damascus and western Aleppo — suffered warfare, destruction and depopulation. If Syria is to recover, Sharaa must impose order so reconstruction can proceed.

He must also re-engage with neighbouring Lebanon. In the "good old days" of the nineteen sixties and seventies, it was possible to take a seat in a service taxi and travel from central Beirut to Damascus in three hours with a brief halt at Chatura for a labneh and zaatar sandwich and a short stop at the border where Syrian customs opened the empty boot of the car and slammed it down while puffing a cigarette proffered by the driver. After a quick look at passports — no visas required — visitors crossed no-man's land and proceeded through the tidy countryside and apricot orchards surrounding Damascus. The apricot trees, like the visa-less idyl, is long gone. Visas to Lebanon are stamped at immigration booths at Beirut airport while it can take weeks and "wasta" (influence) to get visas for no longer free-and-easy, welcoming Syria which is a rich destination for tourists.