Five predictions shaping 2025 key election races

For most of this year, the only evidence that public opinion has turned against Trump was an occasional special election or a judicial race in Wisconsin — approval ratings, aside.

But, as Inside Washington broke down last month, the gubernatorial races and other major-ticket statewide races. And it doesn't get much better than a mayor's race in New York that could determine if socialist progressive insurgent Zohran Mamdani can have a clear mandate to govern, two moderate Democratic congresswomen can win governorships in states chock full of suburbanites and voters of color — and whether Democrats can redraw their congressional map in California, which would bolster Gavin Newsom's presidential aspirations.

Inside Washington has been following these races ravenously, checking out fundraising, polling and early voting. While occasionally we get it wrong and we promptly admit it, here's our boldest predictions for tomorrow night's elections in the heart of Dixie, the Garden State, the Big Apple and the Golden State.

Virginia: Can Democrats win back the suburbs?This is the easiest one for the ol' crystal ball. Abigail Spanberger, a former CIA officer congresswoman who turned a congressional district in the suburbs of Richmond blue in 2018, will crush Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears.

While Sears has gone all-in on particular community, it has fallen flat amid a government shutdown and Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency slashing federal jobs, which particularly hurts employees in the northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, DC. Sears also fell for Spanberger's bait in a debate when she said "that's not discrimination" when Spanberger pointed out she would ban same-sex marriage.

What matters is just how big Spanberger's win will be. Democrats hope to gain a supermajority in the state House of Delegates, which would allow them to redraw their congressional map with ease. Polling shows a Spanberger lead between 10 to 14 points. Final prediction: Spanberger wins by 12 percent and nabs a supermajority.

Virginia attorney general's race: A scandal-rocked high-stakes raceIf the governor's race in Virginia a matter of how big Spanberger will win, the attorney general's race is going to be razor-thin. While governors cannot run for consecutive terms in Virginia, the attorney general can. Republican Jason Miyares flipped the seat in 2021 and would likely be a future candidate for governor. Unlike Earle-Sears, he's earned Trump's support. And he's running against an incredibly flawed candidate in Democrat Jay Jones, who came under fire after text messages revealed that he fantasized about shooting and killing the former speaker of the state House Todd Gilbert and calling his children "little fascists."

Polling has shown the race is either in a dead heat or even has Jones in the lead. If Democrats win, he will likely join lawsuits against the Trump administration. But if Miyares wins, he might serve as a bulwark against the Spanberger administration and the general assembly. Final prediction: Based on Spanberger having a big enough margin of victory, Jones wins by less than a point.

New Jersey: Can Trump's non-white working-class coalition hold? As New Jersey's most famous son would say, you can't start a midterm fire without an off-year spark. In 2024, Kamala Harris only won it by a little less than six points, about ten points less than Joe Biden won it in 2020. Trump did by flipping Passaic County, home to a large Latino population. He cut into Democratic margins in Hudson County, whose large Cuban-American population led to part of it being called "Havana on the Hudson." Republican Jack Ciattarelli, who nearly beat incumbent Gov. Phil Murphy, is hoping that holds for his election against Rep. Mikie Sherrill. Sherrill is "national security Democrat," in the mold of Spanberger and Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.). While she lacks the charisma of Spanberger, she's aggressively attacked Ciattarelli, specifically after Ciattarelli's campaign obtained her private Naval records.

And according to VoteHub, which tracks early voting, Democrats make up about 51 percent of in-person early voting in the Garden State, while Republicans make up only 29 percent. Final prediction: Sherrill wins by 7 percentage points.

New York City: The Mamdani Mandate nobody disputes that Zohran Mamdani will become New York City's next mayor. What everyone wants to know is whether he wins by a big enough margin to have a clear mandate to govern. While Mamdani caught fire with his message about affordability, he also benefited from the fact incumbent Mayor Eric Adams exited the Democratic primary and disgraced former governor Andrew Cuomo had significant baggage in the primary due to the fact he resigned after allegations of sexual misconduct.

For Mamdani to have a mandate, he'll need to not only win, but win a clear majority. That means not just running up the margins with Latinos, Asian-Americans and young upwardly mobile professional whites; it will require him cutting into Cuomo's margins with Black voters, the beating heart of the Democratic Party establishment. So far, Mamdani has the momentum. Final prediction: Mamdani clears a majority, but does not hit 55 percent. A safe bet is around 52 to 53 percent.

California: The future of the midterms and the Democratic PartyNo Democratic elected official has made himself the face of the anti-Trump resistance more than California Gov. Gavin Newsom. When Texas began its efforts to add five safe Republican seats, Newsom responded by saying he'd "meet fire with fire" and shepherded a ballot initiative known as Proposition 50 to allow for a one-time partisan redraw of congressional districts to respond to Texas's gerrymander.

It's an audacious move. But Democrats have poured $129 million to support the initiative, with Newsom and his allies making up 72 percent of all spending, according to AdImpact. If it passes, Democrats can get around the nonpartisan redistricting commission and draw seats that will put Republicans out of a job and allow the Democrats to get a boost in the 2026 midterm. In addition, it will undoubtedly vault Newsom to the front of the 2028 presidential field and it's not even close. The University of California Berkley's Institute of Governmental Studies had the initiative polling at 60 percent. Early voter turnout overwhelmingly favors the Democrats. By turning the initiative into a referendum against Trump, it looks like Democrats have the right message. Final prediction: Proposition 50 passes with 58 percent of the vote.

Of course, take these predictions with a grain of salt. In the past, I've predicted Kamala Harris would win the prediency, Trump would pick a woman as his running mate and said the Dobbs effect after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v Wade would not be a thing in 2022, only to think it would be a thing in 2024. Feel free to roast me come Wednesday morning.