New DNA based Indian elephant census

Using DNA-based genetic mark-recapture techniques, scientists from the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) have pegged India’s elephant population at 22,446 in a recently released elephant population estimation, highlighted by a Mongabay-India report. This is the same method used for estimating the country’s tiger population.

As the MI report adds, scientists emphasise that the new figures are not comparable with past estimates given the methodological shift. The new estimate of 22,446, with the true number estimated to be between 18,255 and 26,645, serves as a fresh national baseline for future monitoring and research. The new estimate of 22,446, with the true number estimated to be between 18,255 and 26,645, serves as a fresh national baseline for future monitoring and research. As per the new report, Karnataka holds the largest share of elephants with 6013 individuals. The Western Ghats region has 11,934, while Assam leads in the Northeast and Brahmaputra floodplains (6559) with 4159 individuals.

The Executive Summary of the WII report ‘Status of Elephants in India: DNA based Synchronous All India DNA Based Synchronous All India Population Estimation Of Elephants (SAIEE)’, says India, home to the largest population of wild Asian elephants, faces several challenges in conserving the species, despite the cultural significance held by elephants. The historical human-elephant relationship dates back to the Harappan civilization, with elephants playing crucial roles in the economy and military. However, despite this historical care, elephants face challenges such as ivory trade demand, habitat loss, and hunting during various historical periods, including the British introduction of recreational killing. Current threats include habitat shrinkage, fragmentation, and increasing human-elephant conflicts, emphasizing the urgent need for comprehensive conservation policies in India. To inform any conservation policy, it is important to have a pulse on the current status, distribution, trends and threats.

The Summary adds that the present distribution of elephants in India represents a mere fraction of their historical range, which spanned the subcontinent around six thousand years ago. Attempts to evaluate the elephant population and trends requires a synchronous sampling framework. The contemporary elephant population, primarily found in forested tracts, remains relatively stable since 1984. The Synchronous All India Elephant Estimation program 2021-25 (SAIEE 2021-25), was undertaken to estimate the population of Elephants in India, in a framework similar to that used for the monitoring of tigers, co-predators and prey. For SAIEE-2021- 25, India was divided into 100 sq. km cells, which were further divided into 25 sq. km, and 4 sq.’ km cells. This design has been adopted for tiger estimation since 2006, where data about tiger, and other species like elephants has been collected since 2006, largely for distribution and relative abundance index. Each grid is uniquely coded so that subsequent inferences could be compared on the same spatial scale and extent.

The study’s first phase involved ground surveys across forested habitats to record elephant signs, vegetation status, and human disturbance using the M-STrIPES mobile app. Elephant occupancy and abundance were modelled using ecological and anthropogenic covariates such as forest cover, distance to water, human footprint, and nightlight intensity. The Spatially Explicit Capture–Recapture (SECR) model was used to estimate population density and extrapolate to unsampled areas, while genetic mark–recapture was conducted using dung samples.

The MI analysis states that the report indicates that while elephant populations in the country remain stable overall, their distribution is a fraction of their historical range, now restricted to fragmented forest tracts. There is an urgent need to strengthen wildlife corridors, mitigate linear infrastructure and power lines, enhance law enforcement, and ensure community participation in elephant conservation.

The WII report highlights that the critical aspect to ensure conservation of Asiatic elephants in the country needs the support of local communities. There is an urgent need to devise policy mechanisms for uniform compensation across areas with elephant presence, prioritizing the well-being of these communities. With increasing human elephant interface, reducing habitat and connectivity, it is important to critically analyse and arrive at future strategies that will not exacerbate existing threats. Strengthening corridors and connectivity, restoration of habitat, improving protection strategies and mitigation of developmental projects are the need of the hour to ensure the well-being of these gentle giants.