Israel could return to war if captives are freed

Once Hamas had accepted the key elements of Donald Trump’s peace plan, he ordered Israel to stop bombing. Instead, Israel carried out dozens or air strikes and artillery shelling, adding to the 66,000 Palestinian fatalities during the 24-month war. Israel’s actions speak louder than words.

Although Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has pro forma accepted Trump’s plan for an end to the ongoing Gaza war, Netanyahu is a master at sabotaging any plan submitted to him and sticking to his agenda whether a majority of Israelis approve or not.

His primary objective in the ongoing campaign in Gaza is the elimination of Hamas although most Israelis had long demanded an end to the war and the release by Hamas of 48 captives for which Israel is obliged to release 250 Palestinian prisoners-for-life and 1,700 Gazans Israel arrested during the war.

Israel’s interception of the latest flotilla in international waters while on route to Gaza has been castigated by governments and activists from the world over. Some 500 people from 44 countries including the US, Britain, Spain, Ireland, Malaysia and Turkey, were aboard the boats when Israeli warships surrounded and forced them to go to Israel’s Ashdod port where the sailors were arrested and deported. This treatment conformed with previous efforts to break Israel’s 18-year blockade of the coastal strip where 2.3 million Palestinians are trapped, starved, and deprived of medical needs, electricity, and fuel.

Israel has halted half a dozen flotillas since 2010 when Israeli commandos were helicoptered onto the Turkish ferry Mavi Marmara and killed 10 activists. Flotillas have not been allowed although during 2008, there were several aid boats which successfully sailed from Cyprus to Gaza, breaking the blockade. Israel put a stop to this well organised effort at the end of that year.

The timing of Israel’s latest flotilla interception was significant as it coincided with consideration by Hamas, which rules Gaza, of Trump’s controversial peace plan and was intended to discourage Hamas from agreeing. Hamas has hesitated due to divisions within its own ranks. While most Gazans and Arab governments see it as the best bad plan for halting Israel’s latest two-year onslaught which has devastated Gaza, killed 66,000 Palestinians of whom 85 per cent have been civilians, and rendered 90 per cent homeless.

As it ambushed and corralled the flotilla, Israel’s army stepped up its offensive against Gaza City where 250,000 Palestinians remain of one million residents and displaced Palestinians. They have stayed because there is no place safe in Gaza. Many who left Gaza City and the north had turned round to go home but no longer. Israel has closed the second road which had been opened for returnees. Gazans are only allowed to take the route to the south where Israel seeks to concentrate and ultimately expel them.

Gazans count on the Trump plan for a ceasefire. Hamas is divided as the plan calls for its disarmament and demobilisation and an end to resistance to Israeli occupation and control. On the positive side, the plan states Israel will not occupy or annex Gaza. No Palestinians will be forced to leave Gaza and could return if left temporarily. Hamas members are to receive amnesty and those seeking to leave Gaza will be permitted to do so. All military activities are to be suspended and battle lines frozen. Israeli forces will withdraw in stages. The Israeli army will maintain a buffer zone within Gaza which will cover 13 per cent of its territory. Sufficient humanitarian aid is to be delivered along with material providing for the rehabilitation of water, sewage, electricity, and communications. Aid deliveries will proceed unhindered through the United Nations.

Hamas is due to cede political authority to an apolitical technocratic Palestinian committee which will include international experts and operate under a “Board of Peace” to be headed by Trump and include former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. This will devise a framework for the post-war situation and raise funds for redevelopment. A temporary international stabilisation force is to be deployed immediately until Palestinian police can impose law and order. The West Bank-based Palestinian Authority is obliged to mount major reforms and a “credible pathway” to a Palestinian state in Gaza, the West Bank and East Jerusalem could be created.

On the negative side, the plan is vague and there are no timetables for carrying out each of the major operations in the plan. No punitive measures have been set for one side or the other if it fails to carry out commitments. There are no US and Western guarantees of the plan. Trump himself is erratic and cannot be counted upon over time.

The major, major weakness of the plan is that Netanyahu could return to war as soon as Israeli captives are freed. They provide Hamas with its only leverage. He can claim Hamas has violated the plan and resume bombing. Who will tackle Israel if it reneges? If Hamas adheres to the deal and Israel does not, Israel would be rid of Hamas and could do whatever it wishes in Gaza.

This round in the Israeli-Palestinian war did not begin on October 7th, 2023, as Israel and its allies like the world to believe. This round has come on top of 57 years of occupation and 18 years of Israeli blockade of Gaza. Full-scale Israeli offensives have killed a combined total of 33,075 Palestinians in warfare in 2008-2009, 2012, 2014, and 2021 and were interspersed with constant threat and intermittent assaults.

While the Trump plan might bring Israel’s official campaign to an end, Israeli violence against Gazans could persist. Lebanon provides the latest manifestation of post-truce Israeli behaviour. While Lebanon reached an agreement with Israel last November, more than 100 Lebanese civilians have been killed in Israeli air and drone strikes across the country and Israeli troops remain in south Lebanon villages in breach of the truce. There have been no violations by Lebanon or Hizbollah.