Democratic hopes rising for ’26 Senate control

The Republican rush to add congressional seats in Texas and other red states reflects the bipartisan consensus that the main 2026 battleground will be the Democratic effort to curb the Trump administration by regaining control of the House. It assumes the GOP’s current 53-47 margin in the Senate is relatively safe, barring a political cataclysm, since the Democrats have so few potential targets for gaining the four seats they need to win control, according to the Tribune News Service.

Recent weeks, however, have seen an uptick in Democratic hopes that what earlier had seemed highly unlikely might just be possible, though the odds remain against them.

That’s because of their candidate recruitment successes in two potential 2026 targets — North Carolina and Ohio; an unexpected GOP retirement in Iowa; and Republican uncertainties in Texas and Maine. In North Carolina, a state where Republicans have foiled Democratic hopes in recent Senate races, two factors changed the potential dynamic this summer.

First, popular two-term former Democratic governor Roy Cooper announced his candidacy for the Senate. Then, the incumbent Republican senator, Thom Tillis, decided to retire after attracting the enmity of President Donald Trump for opposing his major legislative initiative.

Republicans promptly coalesced around the Republican national chairman and former state GOP chair, Michael Whatley. But he has never sought elective office before, while Cooper is undefeated in six statewide races, four for attorney general and two for governor. Early polls show him with a slight lead.

In Ohio, once a tossup state but lately increasingly Republican, Democratic hopes center on former Sen. Sherrod Brown. The last Democrat to win a major state-wide race, he served in the Senate for 18 years before his 2024 defeat. Now 72, Brown hopes to unseat Republican Sen. John Husted, who was appointed to succeed JD Vance, after Trump selected the freshman senator as his vice-presidential running mate and the pair won the 2024 election. A poll showed Husted with a small lead.

And in Iowa, two-term Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced she won’t run again next year. That set off a scramble in both parties, though the GOP quickly coalesced around Rep. Ashley Hinson who remains favored.

But even if the Democrats won all three of those races, they would still be one short of control. With Vance as vice president, they need to gain four seats to reach 51 while holding all 13 of their own being contested next year, including four without incumbents. And the number of good Democratic opportunities is small among the other 19 Republican seats at stake.

Two stand out as the best of a bad lot — Maine and Texas. In Maine, five-term Republican Sen. Susan Collins has survived prior challenges despite the state’s increasingly Democratic trend. Polls show her job approval down, but Democrats have yet to find a potent foe.

Some party leaders have encouraged popular outgoing Gov. Janet Mills to run, though she is 77. Meanwhile, several younger Democrats have already announced their candidacies, with progressives quickly backing Graham Platner, a 41-year-old oysterman and Iraq-Afghanistan veteran. In Texas, polls have given the Democrats some reason for encouragement because of the prospect that controversial state attorney general Ken Paxton might win what is already a bitter primary fight against four-term Republican Sen. John Cornyn.

Early polling showed Paxton leading Cornyn but vulnerable in the general election, though more recent surveys showed the GOP primary gap narrowing. GOP Rep. Wesley Hunt also may run. Cornyn would be favored if he wins renomination.

Several Democrats are running, including former Rep. Colin Allred, who lost a 2024 Senate bid, and, most recently, state Rep. James Talarico, who emerged as a leading voice in Democratic resistance to GOP efforts to add House seats.

Besides gaining four seats, Democrats would need to hold all 13 of their own. That may be hard, though it’s more likely than winning four GOP seats.

One is the single most endangered incumbent from either party, freshman Georgia Sen. Jon Ossoff. The narrow winner of a January 2021 run-off, Ossoff is an excellent fundraiser with more than $15 million in the bank, while the GOP faces a multi-candidate primary.