US and Israel only hurdles to recognising Palestine

The past week has seen significant developments on the regional scene which could have long-lasting and transformational impacts. Key Western nations were among 10 new countries to recognise a Palestinian state ahead of and during the opening session of the United Nations General Assembly. Britain, France, Australia, Canada, Portugal, Luxembourg, Belgium, Malta, Monaco, and Andorra joined 147 of the UN’s 193 members in recognising Palestine 37 years after the Palestine National Council met in Algiers and declared independence.

The addition of Britain and France to Russia and China means Palestine has been recognised by four out of five members of the UN Security Council with Israel’s ally, the US, remaining outside the consensus.

While this does not mean a Palestinian state will spring from the soil of recognition, it signifies that the emergence of a Palestinian state is essential for the attainment of peace and stability in this region. Global recognition for Palestine makes Israel and the US, which refuse to accept Palestine, the obstacles to this goal and puts them permanently on the wrong side of history at a time settler-colonial regimes have long since disappeared.

A United Nations commission of inquiry has ruled that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza by killing and wounding Palestinians and inflicting conditions meant to destroy them, including preventing births. The commission said that statements by Israeli leaders and actions by Israeli military forces demonstrate genocidal intent. This ruling undermines the claim Israel makes that it is operating in self-defence to justify its actions although they violate international law and humanitarian norms. Israel’s claim is now seen as being far from the truth.

Arab leaders extended their support for the US post-war plan for Gaza which is based on a proposal by former British Prime Minister Tony Blair who will be involved in implementation if Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu agrees to the plan’s terms when he meets US President Donald Trump in Washington today (Monday). Hamas is expected to disengage from Gaza’s governance and disarm its military ahead of the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and Israel’s withdrawal from the strip. Once Gaza is free, Israel will come under increasing pressure to evacuate the West Bank and East Jerusalem in accordance with multiple UN resolutions and the recent ruling by the International Court of Justice.

Unlike Trump’s February plan which involved expelling Palestinians from Gaza, US occupation, and transforming Gaza into a regional “Riviera,” the Trump-Blair plan provides for a ceasefire, Palestinians to remain in Gaza and a Palestinian government of technocrats to govern and reconstruct Gaza from devastation wrought by nearly two years of Israeli bombardment and ground offensives. While Israel cannot be expected to accept the plan, outright rejection could pit Netanyahu against Trump who is eager to score a peacemaking success in this troubled region. Trump’s ambition is to win the Nobel Peace Prize. He will not like being thwarted in his drive to earn the prize.

The relationship between the two men is already cool and tense and could deteriorate in the coming months if efforts to end the Gaza war stall due to Netanyahu’s rejectionism. He seeks to keep the war going to avert being held accountable for the failure of the Israeli army to predict and protect Israel from the October 2023 Hamas attack that killed 1,200 and rendered 250 captives of Hamas. While most captives have been returned, 48, including 20 live, remain, in Hamas hands. While Netanyahu gives priority to eliminating Hamas as a threat, the majority of Israelis demand, “Bring the hostages home!” This inconvenient chant creates a major headache for the increasingly unpopular Netanyahu who also uses the war as a means to avoid dealing with prosecution for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. Observers suggest he may also try to use the war to delay legislative elections and keep himself in office.

An opinion poll published on September 19th showed that Netanyahu’s coalition has been reduced to 49 Knesset seats out of 120 while the opposition has 61 seats. The poll also revealed that 52 per cent of Israelis do not trust Netanyahu while 44 per cent trust him and four per cent are undecided.

Israel is already in a pre-election period as the next vote for the Knesset must take place on or before October 27th, 2026. Increasing dissatisfaction, caused by insecurity, economic instability, and alienation from the current leadership could cost the Likud and Netanyahu control after the coming election. By contrast, the opposition bloc has consistently polled above the 60-seat mark, putting it in a strong position to form a government.

If the far from united opposition should fail, Netanyahu’s Likud bloc would have to rely again on small extremist parties to form a coalition. This could mean that extremists could, once again, determine policies of the government which are harmful to Israel and deny self-determination to Palestinians. Without the latter, Israel will not be granted peace and security. To make matters worse for Israel, rejection has expanded to take in countries in Western Europe which had been close Israeli allies. This was revealed when his plane had to avoid most of European airspace when he travelled to New York due to the arrest warrant for Netanyahu for war crimes issued by the International Criminal Court.

When he began his address the UN General Assembly last Friday most delegates walked out. Thirty-four of the boycotting delegates from Europe, Asia, and Africa attended a simultaneous meeting on the sidelines co-chaired by Colombia and South Africa to work out ways to obstruct Israel’s access to arms, and energy. Under Netanyahu’s stewardship, Israel has shed many friends and allies.