US military threat to Venezuela

Is United States President Donald Trump, who is quite eager to win the Nobel Prize for Peace, preparing to launch a military attack on Venezuela? The build-up of the naval ships in south Caribbean is a clear signal that the US plans some kind of military action.

The US has already put a prize on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, $50,000, to be captured for his alleged involvement in illegal drug trafficking. Planning to go to war while seeking the Nobel Prize for Peace is an ironical gesture. It would be futile to speculate whether Trump would order an invasion of Venezuela with the intention to capture President Maduro.

But it is indeed a threatening gesture. On an earlier occasion, the Americans did capture the president of Panama Manuel Antonio Noriega on charges of drug trafficking. The Americans are used to breaking international rules. They behave in an irresponsible manner on the international stage.

It is indeed a fact that Maduro, who has succeeded Hugo Chavez, has not followed democratic norms in outflanking the opposition. It is indeed a matter of concern, and it does throw up questions about the democratic credibility of Venezuela and Maduro.

But it remains an internal matter of Venezuela. The other countries can express concern over the quality of democracy in Venezuela, but it does not give them the right to intervene in the country on the pretext of saving democracy. Arguments based on international norms do not much matter to Trump because much like his predecessors he believes in American unilateralism, and there is nothing legal about it.

The only way that Venezuela can save itself is if the Venezuelan opposition stands by Maduro and resists the military plans of the United States against Venezuela. It has been the case with the US that it would extend support to the opposition forces to legitimize its intervention in the country. The other necessary thing would be for the other neighbours of Venezuela, in South America and the Caribbean to send out a clear message to Washington that the US strong-arm tactics would not be accepted.

This would not be the first time that an American president would be meddling with the internal affairs of a country in the western hemisphere. There was the invasion of tiny Grenada during the presidency of Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, and before that there was the invasion of Cuba in 1906, Nicaragua in 1912 and Veracruz in Mexico in 1914. Can America be a law unto itself in the 21st century as it had been in the 20th century? Trump seems to believe that America is still the overlord, but he may find it difficult to press on with the idea.

So far, Trump has been in a threatening mode, and he has not entered into war with any country. The exception is Iran earlier this summer when Israel’s aerial attacks on Iran’s nuclear installations had been supplemented by that of the American bombers. In Venezuela, he is unlikely to content himself with bombing Venezuela. He may be tempted to send in troops. That would be a serious blunder despite the overwhelming military superiority of the US over Venezuela.

It would be lighting another war fire, adding to the already raging wars in Ukraine, in Palestine and in several parts of Africa. The Americans under Trump would lose whatever little credibility they enjoy as a democracy in the world. The wars that the US has unleashed in Afghanistan and in Iraq have proved disastrous to the US morale. The US can claim partial credit that it has ended the dictatorial regime of Saddam Hussein in Iraq. But in Afghanistan, the US has enabled the return of the puritanical Taliban to power in Kabul.