Joni Ernst’s retirement decision may shake up Senate map

The 2026 midterm map may appear much more favorable for Democrats after it was reported on Friday that Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa is not likely to run for re-election. In her second term, Ernst’s relative youth at 55, when compared to other members of the aging chamber, and her proven ability to win statewide was seen as a key asset for Senate Republicans hoping to hold their majority in the chamber next year.

The Republican Party controls 53 seats in the Senate. Vacancies in Ohio and North Carolina were previously expected to give Democrats an opening to whittle down that majority to almost nothing. CBS News first reported on Friday that Ernst had informed confidantes of her decision not to run. An official announcement is reportedly coming in the week ahead.

The Independent reached out to her office for comment and the report was separately confirmed by CNN. Ernst and her team haven’t yet commented publicly. Her departure would shake up the Senate map and give Democrats a clear path to a 50-50 Senate, where JD Vance would be needed to break ties and singular Republican defections would tank any movement in the chamber. There’s even a slim but growing possibility of Democrats obtaining an outright majority: besides seats in Ohio and North Carolina, which are vacant and already targeted by well-funded and deeply connected Democratic candidates, the party is eyeing races in Maine, where Susan Collins is facing re-election, as well as in Texas.

In the Lone Star State, a Republican primary gives Democrats a potential opening. John Cornyn is up for re-election but currently trailing his far-right GOP challenger, Ken Paxton, in the Republican primary field. Cornyn himself has warned that Paxton’s victory could give Democrats a chance to snatch the seat. Maine is a different story. Susan Collins consistently registers shaky approval ratings in her purple state home, but has a proven track record of winning tough re-election fights and beating Democrats with deep pockets, most recently Sarah Gideon in 2020. A surging grassroots campaign is forming behind Graham Platner, a Marine and Army veteran, while national Democrats are reportedly hoping that the state’s 77-year-old Governor Janet Mills will enter the race instead.

The loss of an incumbent in Iowa puts the potential outcome of a Democratic Senate for the remainder of Donald Trump’s presidency on the table, though still unlikely. Ernst was already facing several announced Democratic challengers, the leading candidate in fundraising is Nathan Sage, while several other Democrats led him in a straw poll conducted at the Iowa State Fair earlier this month.

Any Republican candidate that emerges as the leader to hold the seat for the GOP in 2026 will still likely require a leg up from the national party. Ernst’s own re-election prospects were clearly damaged earlier this year when she was recorded on video at a town hall event telling a voter “we all are going to die...for heaven’s sakes” in response to the voter’s concern about cuts to Medicaid and SNAP benefits.

Republican members of Congress, including Ernst, have struggled to sell Trump’s budget reconciliation package — the “big, beautiful bill” — on the campaign trail as a result of voter concerns about new eligibility requirements threatening to throw millions off of both programmes. Politico reported in July that she was considering retirement, citing her unenergetic fundraising pace. At the time, the outlet reported that Rep. Ashley Hinson, a Republican representing Iowa’s 2nd district, was highly likely to run for Ernst’s seat if the senator stepped down. She hadn’t issued a comment as of mid-afternoon on Friday. Other members of the already-crowded Democratic field asserted that Ernst’s reported decision was a result of polling showing the race winnable for Democrats. “(Joni) Ernst is bowing out of this race, because she knows what we’ve known for a long time — Iowa is WINNABLE!” tweeted the Sage campaign.

The senator “saw the writing on the wall,” added state Sen. Zach Walls, another Democrat running for the seat. “Iowans are fed up with rising costs and unchecked corruption. And next year, we’re going to flip this seat.” Republicans just lost their supermajority in the Iowa state senate, following an upset victory by a Democrat earlier this week. And the likelihood that Trump himself has run his last race means that the GOP will no longer have his magnetic presence at the top of the ticket going forward. Taking control of one or both chambers of Congress next year would allow Democrats to effectively halt Trump’s legislative agenda for the remainder of his term. It would also allow Democrats to wield the power of Congress’ committees and even potentially launch a third push at impeaching the president. By controlling the Senate, Democrats could also prevent the appointment of another conservative Supreme Court justice were a vacancy to occur.

Retaking the upper chamber would also give Democrats momentum heading into 2028, when the party hopes to retake control of the White House. In the majority of states the Democrats would need to win next year, that remains an uphill battle. Democrats haven’t won statewide in Iowa since 2008; in Ohio, the party lost Senate races in 2024 and 2022. In Maine, Collins remains the heavy favourite. Texas’ odds hinge on the defeat of Cornyn in a Republican primary and even then Paxton would have the advantage. North Carolina remains the party’s best chance for a pickup. The retirement of Thom Tillis after his vote against his own party’s budget reconciliation bill, legislation supported by the president, eliminates the GOP incumbency advantage in one of America’s most purple states. Democrats are consolidating behind Governor Roy Cooper, the first challenger to defeat a sitting governor in state history, who himself remains popular after two terms.

The party’s main hope for a 50-50 scenario or an outright majority remains in hoping for a “blue wave” year, propelled by frustrations against the president and a compliant GOP Congress. In a new poll this week from Quinnipiac University, Trump’s approval rating is at its lowest point yet for his second term, while the survey also showed Democrats chipping away at his support even among Republican voters. The survey indicated clear issues of concern where Trump remains underwater, uch as his federalised takeover of Washington DC, and so that remains a clear possibility should Trump continue to be frustrated in his efforts to resolve the nagging concerns of his base. But that outcome could also hinge on Democratic leadership in Congress finding its way out of its own swamp of discontent — or stepping aside to let more popular figures in the party take the reins. The same Quinnipiac poll in July found Democrats in Congress with their lowest approval rating on record, which is now approaching single digits. Only 19 percent of voters said they supported the job congressional Democrats were doing at the time.