The uncertain fallout of the Putin-Trump summit meeting

The much-hyped summit meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and United States President Donald Trump in Alaska on Saturday was not exactly a damp squib it seems to be because it has not changed the ground reality of the Ukrainian war. The war continues.

Of course, there was no prospect of a ceasefire which Trump had hoped to achieve. It is, to give it a positive spin, an ice-breaker. And it was also the first time that Putin broke off his isolation from the Western world ever since he had ordered the invasion of Ukraine in February, 2022. He had visited North Korea and China.

It is now a question of debate and discussion as to what came of it. It seems that something did come out of it. Putin had indicated his terms of agreement to end the war, an unequal division of territory. Russia would yield about 600 sq.km to Ukraine in return for 6,000 sq. km. Will it be acceptable to Ukraine? On the face of it, it does not

What Putin asks is legitimization of Russian acquisition of the Crimean peninsula in 2014. Trump met Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington on Monday. Trump is likely to persuade Zelensky to accept the Putin proposals in their entirety, but in principle – that is accepting Russian acquisition of territory – and which would put Zelensky in an unenviable tight spot.

It is an unacceptable proposition for the Ukrainians. But it is also a difficult position to maintain. Ukraine is feeling the stress and strain of war. Americans and Europeans may help it with arms, but the war has to be fought by the Ukrainians. The price is enormous despite the bravery of the Ukrainians. The losses in men and materials are unsustainable over a long period. Russia can wage a war for a long time. Ukraine cannot survive a long war.

Zelensky and the European leaders like French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, European Union President Ursula von der Leyen, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte will firmly oppose the Putin plan.

So, is Trump compromising the democratic forces of Europe by talking to Putin, the uncontested ruler of Russia, who has been in power for 25 years now, second only to Joseph Stalin who was the top Russian leader for 30 years? Trump, whatever his drawbacks, and there are too many, is also a pragmatist like any businessman. He is keen to end the war and he believes that compromises are inevitable.

Ukraine and Europe are not willing to compromise. They think any compromise with Putin would mean strengthening the anti-democratic forces on the continent. There are already some countries from eastern Europe, which formed the communist bloc before 1989, who are not averse to making compromises with Russia.

It would be useful to recognize that EU and NATO are not identical. NATO sees Russia as a military threat. EU is indifferent, and its members had no hesitation in dealing with Putin’s Russia in trade matters. EU is, of course, committed to the notion of liberal democracy. And it wants to defend Ukraine’s right to be a democracy.

It is of course the case that there have been pro-Moscow, pro-West political factions in Ukrainian politics, and Western Europeans and Americans played their own hand in supporting the pro-West faction in Ukraine.

The last three years of war have shown that Ukrainians are with Zelensky and they believe in the idea of a sovereign Ukraine. Putin through his actions will recognize an independent Ukraine. The West will seek a guarantee from Russia that it would not make any further encroachments in Ukraine. Of course, there is always the nagging doubt whether Russia and Putin would honour such a commitment.