Zelensky knows he risks another White House ambush

Sam Kiley, The Independent

The free world's most celebrated president is showing some mettle in agreeing to a meeting with the leader of the free world. When Volodymyr Zelensky walks into the Oval Office on Monday, he knows he's risking another ambush. The Ukrainian president is prepared to gamble that he'll get another White House schoolyard bullying session, because there's a slim chance that Donald Trump may finally have tired of being played by the Kremlin. It is now conceivable, just, that Trump is prepared to consider security guarantees for Ukraine that reflect Nato's Article 5, which could mean that if Ukraine signed up to a peace deal then its long-term future sovereignty and security would be protected, by force of arms, by allies including the US.

Giorgia Meloni, the Italian prime minister, spoke with Trump and went public with the idea (that had been hers in the first place) suggesting that the US president had bought into the concept. "The crucial point remains security guarantees to prevent new Russian invasions, and this is the aspect where the most interesting developments were recorded in Anchorage," Meloni said.

Meloni said Trump had highlighted an earlier Italian proposal for security guarantees for Ukraine "inspired by Nato's Article 5".

"The starting point of the proposal is the definition of a collective security clause that would allow Ukraine to benefit from the support of all its partners, including the USA, ready to take action in case it is attacked again," said Meloni. After his Friday summit with Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Trump said that the two presidents were close to an agreement. He didn't mention "peace" or a "ceasefire" and admitted that there's no deal until there is a full deal.

Sources have since confirmed to The Independent that Putin demanded that Ukraine give Luhansk and Donetsk provinces to Russia in return for a "freeze" on the front lines elsewhere.

Zelensky, they said, would seek "clarity" on the proposal — which could only be agreed after a referendum in Ukraine.

"We had an extremely productive meeting and many points were agreed to. There are just a very few that are left. Some are not that significant. One is probably the most significant, but we have a very good chance of getting there," Trump said.

That "one" significant sticking point with Russia might well be that Ukraine and Europe have persuaded Trump that there can be no enduring peace for Ukraine if a ceasefire, or peace deal, is just a pause in fighting while the Kremlin prepares for a renewed conflict.

Putin's demand that Ukraine cede two provinces in return for a pause in the killing are certain to be rejected by Europe and Ukraine as they make no commitment to ending Putin's long-term desire to take the rest of the counrty.

So far this year Trump has echoed and accepted almost all of Russia's conditions for peace. He has endorsed Putin's demand that Ukraine can never join Nato. He has accepted that Moscow should keep the Ukrainian lands it has already captured. He has blamed the west for provoking the war with Russia in the first place and has even questioned the legitimacy of the Zelensky presidency itself.

Diplomatic sources very close to the European and Ukrainian talks, which followed the Trump-Putin meeting, said that while there was relief that Trump now understood the need for Ukrainian security guarantees.

But details of how it would work — and what concessions Ukraine would be asked to make, are critical. "The question is — how can, or will, this work?" one senior source said.

If, on arrival in the Oval Office, Trump tells him to accept that he must give away Ukraine's east, including Crimea, forever abandon fantasies of joining the EU and Nato and hold elections while his country is occupied (all Russian demands) — then any "security guarantees" will be meaningless. They will have been part of a Russian effort to see Zelensky enfiladed in the White House, as he was in February.