Trump-Putin summit in Alaska raises hopes

The Donald Trump-Vladimir Putin summit meeting at Anchorage in Alaska on Friday is a high stakes one. It could end the more-than-three-years-old war between Russia and Ukraine, or it could end as a damp squib with no results. It is the most difficult peace parley because one of the parties to the conflict, Ukraine, is not present at the meeting.

President Volodymyr Zelensky had to travel to Berlin and participate in a video meeting with the US president along with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Trump has apparently assured the European leaders that he would want Zelensky to be part of the meeting with Putin. But it will have to wait.

The European leaders are hoping that in the follow-up meeting to be held at a neutral place somewhere in Europe, both Putin and Zelensky will be at the talks. Merz, Macron and Zelensky are also worried that Trump may agree to a peace deal that is not favourable to Ukraine, and it would involve ceding Ukrainian territory under Russian occupation to the Russians. Trump has a difficult task on hand, and he does recognize the fact that there has to be some kind of swapping of territories to be able to end the war.

But there is no guarantee that Ukraine can claim any territory, and if it does it is that which belongs to Ukraine. But there is the glimmer of hope among the Europeans that Trump would present Ukraine and Europe and safeguard their interests. It is not clear that Trump sees himself as a representative of democratic West as opposed to Russia and Putin.

The Russian assessment of the Friday summit is quite different from the apprehensions in Kiev, Berlin and Paris. Putin being invited for a diplomatic summit on American soil is seen as a diplomatic victory for the Russian president. Putin has been shunned diplomatically by the West, though the Asian countries have held their own. Despite the invitation, Putin did not attend the G20 summits in Bali and in New Delhi, and the BRICS summit in Brazil.

The Alaska summit then brings back Putin to the international stage. And the Russians see it as a victory. Russian political scientist Ilya Budraitskis and a visiting scholar at the University of California, Berkeley, says, “From Putin’s side, this shows the restoration of his position in the world, that he comes to American territory and meets with the president, who shows signs of respect. It is clear that this meeting is a symbolic victory for Russia by the very fact it is being held, regardless no one expects any result from it.” Budraitskis also says that it shows that Putin’s strategy of inflexibility has paid off, and the world has been forced to talk to him.

There is the expectation that there will be a redrawing of the European map. The Europeans are opposed to it, Ukraine is against it. The choice for Europe is to continue the fight. The Americans may not be willing to stand with Ukraine and Europe. Even without the inconsistent Trump at the helm, Americans are suffering from Ukraine-fatigue.

It is also doubtful whether America can pressurize Russia in any effective way. Putin seems to be aware that the American commitment to Ukraine is shaky. The Europeans fear that Putin would not be content with the territorial gains he makes Ukraine in this round. He would make further demands on Ukrainian territory a few years down the line. He did not stop with the occupation of Crimea in 2014. He has now set his eyes on the small republics to the east of Ukraine, which contain the Russian-speaking population.