US is no longer first choice for international students

In China, wait times for US visa interviews are so long that some students have given up. Universities in Hong Kong are fielding transfer inquiries from foreign students in the US, and international applications for British undergraduate programs have surged.

President Donald Trump's administration has been pressuring US colleges to reduce their dependence on international enrollment while adding new layers of scrutiny for foreign students as part of its crackdown on immigration. The US government has sought to deport foreign students for participating in pro-Palestinian activism, reported Associated Press. In the spring, it abruptly revoked the legal status of thousands of international students, including some whose only brush with law enforcement was a traffic ticket.

After reversing course, the government paused new appointments for student visas while rolling out a process for screening applicants' social media accounts.The US remains the first choice for many international students, but institutions elsewhere are recognizing opportunity in the upheaval, and applicants are considering destinations they might have otherwise overlooked. The impact on US universities — and the nation's economy — may be significant.

New international enrollment in the US could drop by 30% to 40% this fall, according to an analysis of visa and enrollment data by NAFSA, an agency that promotes international education.

That would deprive the US economy of $7 billion in spending, according to the analysis. Many international students pay full price, so their absence would also hurt college budgets, Associated Press reported.

As the second most popular destination for international students, Britain is positioned to benefit.

The country's new Labour government has vowed to cut migration, and officials have imposed time limits on post-study visas allowing graduates to stay and work. But admissions consultants say the United Kingdom is still seen as the most welcoming of the traditional "big four" English-speaking destinations in higher education — the US, UK, Canada and Australia.

After declining last year, the number of international applications for undergraduate study in the UK this fall grew by 2.2%, official figures show. A record number of applications came from China, up 10% compared with the previous year. Applications from the US also reached nearly 8,000 students — an increase of 14% and a 20-year high. Acceptances of international students for graduate programs in the UK grew an estimated 10% from last year, driven by demand for business and management courses in particular, according to data from UniQuest, which works with many British universities on admissions.

Data showing the extent of any impact will not be available until fall, said Mike Henniger, CEO of Illume Student Advisory Services, a consultancy that works with colleges in the US, Canada and Europe. "But the American brand has taken a massive hit, and the UK is the one that is benefiting," he said.

Demand from Chinese students has risen rapidly for universities places in Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia, said Will Kwong, managing director of AAS Education, a consultancy in Hong Kong. Many Western universities have offshore campuses there that are more affordable than going to the US or UK.

"Opting for study in Asia has been a trend since the easing of COVID-19," Kwong said. "But obviously it's been exacerbated by the change of administration in the US."

Some Asian families have told him the US is no longer their clear first choice because of political turbulence and visa difficulties, many are still waiting for US visa interviews and will likely miss the start of the fall term, Kwong said. Chinese college student Alisa, who is studying data science, plans to attend an exchange program this fall at the University of California, Berkeley. She hopes to pursue a master's degree in the US. But she is also looking into other options "just so I could still go to school if the extreme scenario occurs," said Alisa, who spoke on condition of partial anonymity out of fear of being targeted.