Shifting monsoons: adapting challenges

India is facing a new climate challenge — its shifting monsoon patterns. Highlighting this, a recent study, ‘Weathering the Storm: Managing Monsoons in a Warming Climate’, points out the alarming impact of climate change on India’s monsoon patterns and extreme weather events. Major findings, as per the IPE Global — Esri India study, indicate that by 2030, eight out of ten districts in India will face increased occurrences of erratic rainfall, correlated with a significant rise in extreme heat incidents.

Another DD News report states that the Indian monsoon, long considered a stable feature of the subcontinent’s climate, is undergoing major changes due to climate change. While overall annual rainfall has not shown a consistent trend at the national level, significant regional shifts and rising extremes are now evident. States like Kerala, parts of Northeast India, and East Central India are experiencing declining seasonal rainfall, while areas such as North Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Rajasthan are witnessing an increase. More alarmingly, extreme rainfall events — those exceeding 150 mm in a day — have increased by 75% in central India between 1950 and 2015. Alongside this, dry spells are also becoming more frequent and prolonged. Between 1981 and 2011, dry spells during the summer monsoon season increased by 27% compared to the period from 1951 to 1980. The number of years with deficient rainfall and the extent of drought-prone areas are also on the rise. These shifts pose serious risks for Indian agriculture. The rainfall is increasingly concentrated in short, intense bursts — nearly half of the seasonal total now falls within just 20 to 30 hours — leaving long dry gaps that affect soil moisture, crop growth, and water availability.

The IPE Global — Esri India study warns that India is on track to become not just hotter — but significantly wetter — by 2030. It forecasts a 43% rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall events, alongside a 2.5-fold increase in the number of heatwave days. Released at the International Global-South Climate Risk Symposium, it presents a first-of-its-kind district-level hazard mapping of combined heat and rainfall extremes and underlines an urgent call to climate-proof urban infrastructure, agriculture, and public health systems. Major urban centres such as Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi, Surat, Thane, Hyderabad, Patna, and Bhubaneswar are projected to witness twice as many heatwave days by 2030. Prolonged summer-like conditions are expected to trigger frequent, erratic rainfall events, with 80% of Indian districts likely to be impacted by multiple extremes in the next five years.

The analysis reveals that India has already experienced a 15-fold rise in extreme heatwave days in the summer (March — September) period since 1993. Alarmingly, the last decade alone accounted for a 19-fold increase, signalling a steep acceleration in climate anomalies. Coastal districts — both east and west — are showing signs of overlapping heat and rainfall extremes. By 2040, nearly 8 out of 10 coastal districts are expected to face extended summer discomfort, even during the traditional monsoon months. The study warns of 63% land-use and land-cover change in hotspot districts under business-as-usual scenarios. It attributes local climate disruptions to rapid urbanisation, deforestation, encroachments on wetlands and mangroves, and unregulated construction. To counter the compounding risks, the study proposes a climate risk observatory for real-time and predictive climate assessments using earth observation data and high-resolution models. It also recommends the creation of district-level ‘heat-risk champions’ within disaster management agencies to coordinate early response strategies and build localised heat resilience.

The DD News report also points out that the traditional rhythm of the monsoon is changing. July, once the peak rainfall month, is showing a decline, while September is wetter. The onset and withdrawal of the monsoon are also shifting across regions, further complicating farming calendars and water management. Natural climate drivers like the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, El Niño, and La Niña remain key influences. Out of 16 El Niño years since 1950, seven have caused below-normal rainfall in India. Despite these disruptions, recent years have seen some positive trends. In 2024, India recorded 108% of its Long Period Average rainfall during the June–September southwest monsoon season. That year, 78% of districts received normal to excess rainfall — the highest in over a decade. However, East and Northeast India continued to face deficits.