Japan’s Upper House poll spells trouble for PM

The Sunday poll to the Upper House of the Japanese Diet is projected to end as a rebuff to the ruling coalition of Liberal Democratic Party-Komeiti coalition led by Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.

The ruling coalition is set to lose its majority in the Upper House according to media projections. The television channel NHK is predicting that the LDP coalition could win between 32 and 53 seats.

Though the government of Ishiba does not have to quit, the prime minister will be under greater pressure than ever to resign, and the LDP will be forced to choose a new leader. Ishiba has acknowledged the setback but he has told a television news channel that the country is facing a crucial trade dialogue with the United States, and that the responsibility of his government is to focus on the bilateral talks, with the US under President Donald Trump, threatening to impose reciprocal tariffs between 10 per cent and 25 per cent. Like many other trading partners of the US, Japan too is worried because the American tariffs would hit the export-based economy harshly.

Political commentators say that Ishiba referring to the trade talks is an indirect way of saying that he would not be stepping down. But it seems most likely that after a trade agreement is finalized with the US, Ishiba might be forced to step down.

His public ratings have been very low because of rampant inflation and the decision of the government to impose a consumer tax. This has been vigorously opposed by all the opposition parties though any other party in office would face the same policy dilemma about inflation. Ishiba is proposing cash handouts to all, including foreigners residing in Japan. It is the far-right Sanseito which is billed to gain the most in these elections. It is projected to win 10 to 15 seats. It holds a single seat in the upper chamber now. The party with the slogan of “Japanese First” was born on the YouTube in 2020 during the Covid pandemic. It has won three seats in the Lower House.

Party leader Sohei Kamiya has tried to explain what is meant by ‘Japanese First”. He told Nippon Television, “The phrase Japanese First was meant to express rebuilding Japanese people’s livelihoods by resisting globalism. I am not saying that we should completely ban foreigners or that every foreigner should get out of Japan.”

But the anti-immigrant plank is part of the party’s political doctrine. The foreigners in Japan form just 3 per cent of the population but their presence has become prominent because of the increase in tourism. The tourist arrivals in Japan this year had crossed the 20-million mark.

Political experts feel that the opposition parties are only taking advantage of the stressful economic condition and that they have nothing different to offer to address the existing challenge. Political science professor Yu Uchiyama of the University of Tokyo said, “The Ishiba administration has received a harsh verdict. It seems the public believed that the government and ruling parties failed to respond effectively to various issues, including rising prices. The opposition’s call for a consumption tax cut appears to have appealed to voters more than the ruling party’s proposed cash handouts.” And he pointed out, “Moves to oust Ishiba may emerge.

However, under these difficult circumstances, it will be hard for anyone – regardless of who becomes prime minister – to turn the situation around.” Japan has been experiencing trouble since the 1990s, starting with stagnation despite the Bank of Japan reducing interest rates to zero and below. It is only last year that the central bank has pushed the interest rate into positive territory.