Robberies are now part of doing business in Mexico

Late one Friday night, a truck carrying sound equipment for legendary cumbia band Los Angeles Azules was pulled over along the Mexico-Puebla highway. Police at the checkpoint were in fact bandits, and upon seeing the pricey cargo they drew their guns and drove off with the loot. The driver and another passenger were left stranded by the side of the road, unharmed except for some hearing damage from a warning shot the robbers fired.

The band publicised the May 9 incident on social media and it was raised a few days later at President Claudia Sheinbaum’s morning press briefing, where she called in the National Guard to investigate. The episode caught widespread attention because of the band’s fame, but hundreds of similar incidents are taking place on Mexico’s highways every week — about one theft attempt every 50 minutes — turning the nation’s major commercial arteries into gauntlets. And unlike Los Angeles Azules, whose $420,000 in gear was eventually returned, most victims suffer the cost of stolen goods without hope for recovery or justice.

Robbery attempts jumped by more than a third in the first two months of 2025 from the previous year, according to Hector Romero, president of Circulo Logistico, an industry group that represents 25 cargo, private security and logistics companies. Cargo thefts topped 24,000 in 2024, up about 16%, data from transportation risk consultancy Overhaul show.

That trails the US and Europe in total incidents. But in loss-ratio terms, which compare the number of thefts to economic activity, Mexico is the worst in the world. Transporting cargo in Latin America’s second-largest economy has become “a very significant problem that has fundamentally broken our supply chains,” Romero said. In Brazil, the region’s largest economy, incident numbers aren’t growing nearly as fast as in Mexico, the data show.

Surging highway crime is just one facet of the massive security crisis Sheinbaum is facing in Mexico. Though her government boasts of its record drug seizures, elimination of clandestine laboratories and efforts to reduce the number of homicides, cargo theft is spiraling out of control. Heists take many forms. From fake checkpoints to blowing tires with spike strips and straight-up accosting drivers who stop for coffee at gunpoint, criminals take advantage of the relatively few resources the Mexican government has to fight the problem.“It’s old-school crime,” said Troy Ryley, Mexico president of Chicago-based Echo Global Logistics. “In the U.S., we’re seeing a lot more cargo theft through fraud. That’s becoming the trend and the more sophisticated way of stealing cargo,” he added. “In Mexico, there’s guns involved and hijackings.”

Explanations for the rise in robberies are many. With Mexico’s exports steadily increasing, there’s more to steal, often of increasing value. The country is awash in guns, many entering illegally from the US. And perpetrators are rarely caught and punished, with some experts saying a decision by Sheinbaum’s predecessor to eliminate the federal police in favor of creating the National Guard made matters worse. Demand is also a driving factor. “There’s a black market for everything,” Romero explained. With thieves targeting goods ranging from baby formula to clothes, electronics and auto parts, as well as cigarettes, alcohol and fresh produce, the economic losses from cargo theft exceed 7 billion pesos ($368 million) annually, according to Circulo Logistico’s estimates. That figure includes the value of the stolen merchandise, damage to or loss of vehicles, supply chain impacts and operational costs for companies.In addition to the monetary cost, the situation is also taking a toll on truckers, who’re working in increasingly untenable conditions. The industry is already facing a shortage of 70,000 drivers nationwide, Romero said, and recruiting under the current conditions is no easy feat.

Omar Garcia Harfuch has one of the hardest jobs in Mexico. Sheinbaum handed him the top security post in the country, having previously appointed him to a similar role when she was mayor of the capital.They took office at a particularly violent time. Former President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Sheinbaum’s mentor, had a mostly passive security strategy dubbed “hugs not bullets.” Mexico registered nearly 200,000 homicides during his six-year administration, the most ever in the country’s modern history. Sheinbaum has given Garcia Harfuch a broad mandate, allowing intelligence forces under his command to be part of the national crime-fighting strategy. She has ceded to him tasks that would have previously been taken on by prosecutors and has made him a prominent figure in negotiations with the US.

High on his list — after bringing down homicides — is reducing cargo heists. Over 80% of thefts happen in Mexico State, Puebla, Guanajuato, Jalisco, San Luis Potosi and Veracruz, according to the most recent data. The central region is home to important industrial and logistics corridors, as well as myriad criminal groups, given its proximity to the capital. Garcia Harfuch’s strategy for highways has been, mainly, to increase police and National Guard presence across locations deemed more vulnerable. He’s also working on improving communication between state and federal forces to reduce response times.It’s a good start, Romero said, but it’s likely not enough. “I have tremendous respect for Garcia Harfuch,” he said, “But I’m afraid the numbers don’t add up.” The National Guard, for example, has 150,000 members. They’re in charge of safeguarding beaches and the southern border, among other tasks. “Then you have 800,000 kilometers of federal and state highways,” Romero said. “It’s so complex.”

Sheinbaum’s office and Garcia Harfuch didn’t respond to requests for comment on this story. Truckers agree security forces are spread too thin in many cases. “If you look at this stretch, there’s no National Guard to be found,” said Dario Luviano, a 51-year-old driver from the Pacific coast city of Manzanillo, as he rested barefoot in his truck near a gas station in Mexico State. Many times, he added, trucks are tracked from the moment they load up. “There’s a lot of mafia in the port itself. There’s information from the inside.”

Companies have come to accept that a portion of their shipments will be stolen. Since Sheinbaum took office, there have been additional roadside inspections for drugs, according to Jordan Dewart, Mexico president of Chicago-based Redwood Logistics, which oversees thousands of cross-border shipments each year. But they haven’t made much of a dent in cargo theft.

“Even when they catch the bad guys, so to speak, they’re not detained for very long,” he said. “It gets back to corruption. I don’t think you can consider cargo theft in Mexico in a bubble or a vacuum. It’s a symptom of much larger things.”

Much of what’s being stolen is part of the $800 billion in goods shuttled between the US and Mexico annually under the free-trade model developed in the 1990s, even though theft usually happens far from the border. And as exports to the U.S. have climbed to $506 billion in 2024 from $294 billion a decade ago, the problem has only gotten worse.