The 2026 GOP primary could reshuffle Texas politics

Gromer Jeffers Jr., Tribune News Service

The 2026 state GOP primary promises to reshuffle Texas Republican politics, as new faces emerge and some veterans seek different offices. At least three statewide offices are likely to feature a GOP race with an uncertain outcome. Those hotly contested races have already divided the party and pitted some of the state’s top Republicans against each other in a brewing endorsement battle. The 2026 GOP face-lift will have its limits. The state’s top officeholders — Gov. Greg Abbott and Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick — won’t face significant opposition in the primary. The biggest upheaval could be in the marquee US Senate race where state Attorney General Ken Paxton is challenging incumbent John Cornyn, who has held the seat since 2003.

Paxton’s candidacy created an opening for attorney general, which now features three formidable contenders. This week, Glenn Hegar leaves his post as Texas comptroller to serve as chancellor of the Texas A&M University System. As a result, a competitive primary is shaping up for that seat. “Paxton has hit his ceiling, and his jumping into the Senate race has created a domino effect,” said Republican political consultant Matthew Langston. “Quite frankly, if you’ve been in office for several terms, why wait? Why wait for another cycle and hope that another statewide seat opens up?” The drama is only beginning, Langston said, and there could be more surprises before the December deadline to file for the March primaries.

“There are still several other people trying to make decisions on if they jump into any of these races or not,” Langston said. “While it feels like we are late in the announcement phase for statewide offices, I think it’s still very early.” Here’s how the face of Texas politics could change.

Paxton’s bold challenge of Cornyn will determine whether the change in Texas political leadership is modest or explosive. Cornyn is a titan of Texas politics. A former state district judge, Texas Supreme Court justice and state attorney general, he’s served in the Senate under four presidents. During that time, Cornyn has navigated changes in the GOP, including the tea party movement and the rise of President Donald Trump. Paxton is likely the biggest challenge of Cornyn’s political career. If Cornyn wins, it will be a triumph over the hard-right activists in the party and the conventional notion that without them you can’t win in GOP primaries. If Paxton upends Cornyn, it would be a watershed moment in Texas political history. No modern Republican senator from Texas has been ousted from office in a GOP primary. That includes Kay Bailey Hutchison and Phil Gramm.

Paxton, who served in the Texas House and Senate, would likely bring a more combative style to Washington. Some Democrats are banking on Paxton beating Cornyn, theorising that he’ll be easier to beat. Other Republican contenders could emerge, including US Reps. Wesley Hunt of Houston, Ronny Jackson of Amarillo and Beth Van Duyne of Irving.

The race to fill the office Paxton holds is one of the best on the Republican primary ballot. Of the major contenders, state Sen. Mayes Middleton of Galveston was first to announce.

The oil executive said when he entered the race in April that he would spend $10 million to launch the effort and more throughout the campaign. Earlier this month, Sen. Joan Huffman of Houston announced her own campaign. Huffman, a former assistant district attorney and state district judge in Harris County, is one of the most powerful lawmakers in Austin and has chaired the influential State Affairs and Finance committees. During the past session she shepherded the bail policy packages sought by Abbott and Patrick. First elected to the Senate in 2008, Huffman doesn’t have to give up her post to run for attorney general, because her term runs through 2026. Aaron Reitz is also seeking to replace Paxton. Until his campaign launch this month, Reitz led the U.S. Department of Justice’s Office of Legal Policy. He’s a former chief of staff for Sen. Ted Cruz and former deputy attorney general under Paxton. He calls himself a “Make America Great Again warrior” and will try to lay claim to the MAGA voters who are influential in the GOP primary. Relationships and endorsements could play roles in the outcome of this contest.

Battle lines have already been drawn in the race for comptroller. Cruz is one of the many Republicans backing former state Sen. Don Huffines of Dallas. His endorsement list also includes Hunt and US Rep. Keith Self of McKinney.

There’s drama in this race, however. Former state Sen. Kelly Hancock of North Richland Hills was appointed chief clerk at the comptroller’s office, and he will lead it when Hegar departs this week. Hancock announced his campaign for comptroller after his appointment, and resigned from the Senate. Abbott followed by endorsing Hancock in the primary. That puts Cruz and Abbott — longtime allies — on opposite sides for this race.

In 2022, Huffines mounted an unsuccessful primary challenge against Abbott, so it’s not surprising that the governor is opposing his bid to become comptroller. A third major candidate in the race is Railroad Commission chairwoman Christi Craddick. Since she was reelected last year, Craddick won’t have to give up her seat to run for comptroller. The Midland lawyer is the daughter of former state House Speaker Tom Craddick, R-Midland.